COVID-19 Resurgence Has 'Already Started' In Philadelphia Region, CHOP Model Predicts
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- A COVID-19 resurgence is being predicted for the Philadelphia region if people don't take precautions more seriously. The problem is now being compounded by a testing delay.
The PolicyLab at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia has modeling showing another outbreak of the coronavirus spreading from the south up the East Coast.
Also on Thursday, Philadelphia Health Commissioner Dr. Thomas Farley had a new warning about testing.
Positive COVID-19 test results are delayed by seven days or more in Philadelphia because of national backlogs at LabCorp and Quest, which account for 25% of the city's tests.
"Those people who are tested in Philadelphia, you should stay isolated until you get your test results," Farley said.
The health commissioner says the delayed testing is temporarily hampering the city's ability to accurately track the virus.
But modeling from the PolicyLab at CHOP is troubling.
"We're seeing increased transmission rates throughout the Philadelphia region right now," Dr. David Rubin said.
Rubin says their tracking shows the coronavirus spreading back into the Northeast.
"We're watching our D.C. metro area and Baltimore area worsen by the day. It's just a matter of time," Rubin said.
When might this resurgence happen in our area?
"It's already started," Rubin said.
That prompted Gov. Tom Wolf to impose new restrictions on Wednesday, citing an "alarming statewide escalation" in new coronavirus infections.
"People have to realize how quickly these epidemics can start to shoot north," Rubin said.
Summer travel gets much of the blame for spreading the virus as well as young people unsafely congregating.
"People have underestimated the amount of distancing that really needs to continue to happen, even if you're wearing your mask," Rubin said. "Worried but I also don't think its too late."
Rubin says people need to take precautions more seriously. That means social distancing and wearing masks.
"To me, this has always been a question of not whether to reopen but how to open safely," he said.
Rubin says the next two weeks will be critical for keeping the virus from spreading more and to be able to safely open schools and get people back to work.
The modeling from the PolicyLab is just a prediction, but it's been pretty accurate so far.
