Last Fan Standing: Week 8
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- I got this league figured out. I'm feeling good. In Week 7 I went 3-0, and over the last two weeks I'm 6-1. Sure, it's not against the spread and I get to pick and choose whichever games I like, but the Last Fan Standing body count keeps dropping. So while the fans are doing something wrong, I must be doing something right.
In the past two weeks 364 people have been knocked out, with 185 going down in Week 7, leaving the number of fans left standing at 413. That's out of 27,790. Seven weeks into the season and 98.5 percent of the population is dust in the wind.
The biggest upset of the weekend (if you think the Colts are good) was the Saints win in Indianapolis. That's back-to-back wins for New Orleans and a total of 101 fans out in the process. Maybe take a break picking against the Saints.
It was the biggest upset in Vegas, but not in this pool. The Chargers Philip Rivers' arm had the trust of 58 contestants even though they were playing the Raiders in a divisional road game. I love watching and rooting for Rivers (more on this later), but that defense has been so bad. This game was over at halftime when the Oakland put up 30 points. The Raiders hadn't scored 30 in a half on the road since 2010. You caught me. This was a road game for the Raiders, not the Chargers. I get confused when the Chargers are at home because the entire stadium is cheering for the other team.
The Saints' win took out 54, and 47 fans tried to sleep through a victory but woke up to learn the Bills went down in London. A pair of homers were sat down by the Eagles, and one, yes one, living, breathing human went online and clicked on the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys to win a game of football. I need a break after that. I'll be back in a minute with some Week 8 selections.
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For the first time this season I am NOT giving you the Patriots. I'd love to know how many of the final 413 even have that option available, but I advise you to stay away. Seattle's manhandling of the 49ers last Thursday is trying to throw you off the scent. Do not be fooled, this game has Weird Thursday Night Game written all over it. I was all in on Dan Campbell last week, and it looks like the shot of life he injected into the Dolphins is sustainable.
The Pats got away with one against the Jets, and it is only a matter of time before they take an L. They are starting rookies at left guard and center on the offensive line, a problem that showed up last week when their running backs combined for five carries, one yard, and will likely be without Dion Lewis again.
Miami will take their time, run the ball and be around at the end with a chance to win. I can't give you the Dolphins (I will with points, +8), but if the Pats go down I don't want to be here next week recapping the 50-something fans that are out because DAN CAMPBELL.
Take the Seahawks instead. They are coming off the long week and are playing against Matt Cassel. I have to believe that one person who took the Cowboys last week sneezed, which caused an accidental selection of Dallas, and was then distracted by a ringing phone or knock at the door and didn't bother to double-check the pick. I can't think of any other logical sequence of events. The Seahawks over the Cowboys.
Two teams that have severely underachieved this season, the 1-6 Ravens and 2-5 Chargers, are playing in Baltimore and this game is horribly even. The Chargers are traveling across the country, but the Ravens are playing on a short week. The Chargers are scoring 24 points per game and allowing 28, and the Ravens score 23 a game and give up 27. Both teams are 1-4 in their last 5 games. The Chargers turnover differential is -6, the Ravens is -7.
You get the picture.
This one comes down to the quarterback, and give me Rivers. The Ravens defense has been much better defending the run than the pass, and the Chargers basically only pass. Rivers leads the league with 2,452 passing yards compared to 610 team-rushing yards, which is the fifth lowest. Rivers is currently on a two-game tear where he is 81-for-123 for 839 yards. All three are NFL records for consecutive games. You would think with that kind of volume his accuracy would take a hit, but he is second in completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts.
Joe Flacco, on the other hand, has struggled in Marc Trestman's black-hole offense. He is 29th in yards per attempt (Rivers is 8th), 26th in QB rating (Rivers is 7th) and 27th in total QBR (Rivers is 13th). Flacco is facing the lesser of two bad defenses, the Chargers are 30th in defensive DVOA, but give me Los Angeles San Diego in a shootout. The Chargers over the Ravens.
The opposite of a shootout will be happening in St. Louis when the Rams host the 49ers. Neither team has had success throwing the ball and both have been competent running it. The difference is the Rams have the fresh legs of Todd Gurley, who is averaging 6 yards per carry and 110 rushing yards per game.
Seattle ate Colin Kaepernick alive, and the Rams actually have a better front. Their defensive line is second to Denver in adjusted sack rate. San Fran's offensive line is 30th in that same category. As long as Nick Foles' pass attempts stay around 25, Gurley and the defense will bring it home. The Rams over the 49ers.
Happy Halloween. Hoot, hoot.
