Week 7 DFS Advice
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Let's just hope Week 7 is not indicative of that Thursday night dreck of a game.
There's only one game this week that Vegas says will go over 50 points and that's Saints +4 at Colts (o/u 52). Still, ownership percentages from that game aren't expect to be that high, so there could be value in this game.
Thanks to Evan Silva of Rotoworld, here are some FanDuel Thursday ownership percentages, so we have a ballpark idea.
When playing in big GPP (guaranteed prize pool) tournaments, like the DraftKings Millionaire Maker, ideally you want to hit on guys with low ownership percentages, and often, recency bias comes into play with these numbers.
Listen: Andrew Porter's DFS Week 7 advice
QB Plays (Price: DraftKings / FanDuel)
Andrew Luck (7600/8900): Luck is home vs. NO, a team that is giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing QBs (over 280 yards and almost 2 TDs per game). Luck is finally starting to get healthy and the Colts' offense should start to get rolling.
Drew Brees (7000/8400): While many fantasy folks have kind of forgotten about Brees and the Saints, he has quietly thrown for over 300 yards in four out of his five games this season. The Saints are coming off a big Thursday night win over Atlanta, and with a few extra days of rest they travel to Indianapolis to play in---what is expected to be----the highest scoring game of the week.
The Colts are giving up about 300 yards and 2 TDs to opposing QB's. Ownership should be low on Brees and most of the Saints, for that matter.
RB Plays (Price: DraftKings / FanDuel)
Todd Gurley (5000/7400): Gurley is $5,000 in DraftKings! That's insanely low for a guy who has rushed for over 145 yards in each of his last two games, at home off a bye, against the fourth worst fantasy run defense in the NFL. Everyone will own him this week, but you don't want to be the person who doesn't.
LeTavius Murray (6100/7000): Murray, a talented back, has sort of yet to get going this season. This week, also off a bye, Murray faces a Chargers defense that is the third worst defense against the run and very good against the pass. Not that I trust the coaching staff of the Raiders, but it seems blatantly obvious they should run the ball.
WR Plays (Price: DraftKings / FanDuel)
Brandon Marshall (7800/8200): I don't like to predict game flow, as it's nearly impossible, but the Jets will likely have to throw vs NE, who is giving up 41 FP per game to opposing WRs (7th worst). Marshall has been as consistent as any NFL WR, tallying at least seven catches and 100 yards in four straight games.
Donote Moncrief (5200/6500): I'm beginning to use Moncrief every single week. I can't help it, the price is right! You're basically getting the No. 1 wide receiver in an Andrew Luck offense at home vs. NO. Moncrief has seven targets or more in every game this season except for one, and already has four touchdowns in six games. The talent is there, the workload is there, the offense is there, the matchup is there, the price is there. What's not to like?
TE Plays (Price: DraftKings / FanDuel)
Antonio Gates (5000/5800): His ownership percentage will be high, but he's nearly impossible to pass up at home vs. Oakland if you can afford him. Gates has nine catches for 90 yards in each of his two games since returning from suspension and Philip Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards.
Benjamin Watson (3300/5300): Watson is coming off a 10 catch, 127 yard, 1 touchdown performance. Now, I'm not expecting that again per say, but he has scored in each of the last two weeks and for a cheap price, Watson is a nice sneaky stack with Brees in a big GPP.
DEF Plays (Price: DraftKings / FanDuel)
St. Louis (2400/4500): $2,400 on DraftKings is one of the cheapest defenses of the week and I don't get it. Am I missing something? The Rams are at home, off a bye, in an expected low scoring game, against Josh McCown. Ownership will be high, but too cheap to pass.
