By Dr. Brian McDonough, Medical Editor

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – You have heard about the potential doctor shortage? Well, according to research from Dartmouth, it is not a potential shortage.

It is a very real concern. It is not far off either.

Using data from the Census Bureau, it has been projected that by 2020, the degree of physician shortfall will be 50% greater than has been previously estimated. They find that there will likely be a shortfall of 300,000 doctors in 2020 after discovering that previous estimates of 200,000 weren’t including nearly 100,000 doctors who, based on past trends, will be retired or not actively practicing anymore.

We are seeing a dramatic increase in physician retirement – many are discouraged by the rapid changes in how health care is delivered. The concern is that by the time this issue is taken seriously, we may have a major problem with the delivery of care.