By Andrew Porter

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — This weekend is Championship Weekend in the NFL. In the first game on Sunday’s double-header it’s the Green Bay Packers at the defending champion Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Title Game. In game two, it’s the Indianapolis Colts at the New England Patriots.

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Lines per Bovada LV, trends per OddsShark:

Packers +7.5 at Seahawks, o/u 47

  • Packers and Seahawks have met twice in playoffs, home team won both times (2004, 2008)
  • Packers 2-6 SU as playoff underdogs since 1996
  • Packers 1-8 SU & ATS last 9 games as road underdogs
  • Packers 1-5 SU & ATS last 6 road games vs. NFC West
  • Packers 1-3 ATS last 4 road games (2-2 SU)
  • Packers 6-3 SU last 9 meetings with Seahawks (4-3-2 ATS)
  • Seahawks have won eight straight as playoff favorites, 5-2-1 ATS
  • Seahawks 7-0 SU last 7 games (6-0-1 ATS)
  • Seahawks 5-0 SU & ATS last 5 home games vs. NFC North
  • Seahawks 5-1 SU & ATS last 6 playoff games
  • Seahawks 23-7 ATS last 30 home games (27-3 SU)
  • OVER 6-3 in last 9 meetings
  • OVER 4-0 in Green Bay’s last 4 road games vs. NFC West
  • OVER 8-3 in Green Bay’s last 11 games as road underdog
  • UNDER 3-0 in Green Bay’s last 3 road games
  • UNDER 3-1 in Seattle’s last 4 home games
  • OVER 9-2 in Seattle’s last 11 home games vs. NFC North

Colts +7 at Patriots, o/u 54

  • Patriots 0-5 ATS in conference championship round since 2005 (2-3 SU)
  • Home team has won and covered four prior playoff meetings of Colts and Pats
  • Colts 0-6 SU last 6 road games vs. AFC East (2-4 ATS)
  • Colts 0-5 SU last 5 meetings with Patriots (2-3 ATS)
  • Colts 3-8 SU & ATS last 11 road playoff games
  • Colts 3-7 SU last 10 games as road underdogs (4-6 ATS)
  • Patriots 3-9 ATS as playoff favorites since 2008
  • Patriots 10-0 SU last 10 home games vs. AFC South (7-3 ATS)
  • Patriots 17-1 SU last 18 home games (12-6 ATS)
  • Patriots 4-10 ATS last 14 playoff games (7-7 SU)
  • UNDER 10-3 in Indy’s last 13 road playoff games (6-1 L7)
  • OVER 6-0 in last 6 meetings
  • OVER 9-1 in Indy’s last 10 road games vs. AFC East (7-0 L7)
  • OVER 6-0 in New England’s last 6 home games vs. AFC South
  • OVER 11-3 in New England’s last 14 home games

 

Since 1998, there have been 12 instances where the Conference Title Games had a favorite of a touchdown or more (see the accompanying chart below of those games)

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  • The highest spread was St. Louis -15.5 over Tampa in 2000. They won 11-6
  • Four times the spread has been in double digits since 1998 and each time the dog covered
  • In the 12 games, the dog is 9-3 against the spread and 5-7 straight up

 

Prediction

NFC: Seahawks 24, Packers 16

AFC: Patriots 31, Colts 28

 

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