By Mike DeNardo

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — Hurricane season begins June 1 and forecasters are predicting a calmer than usual season this year.

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AccuWeather and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration each predict a slower than usual Atlantic hurricane season.

CBS3 meteorologist Katie Fehlinger agrees. She says warmer Pacific water known as an El Nino will likely increase the trade winds and wind shear, things which tend to tear up tropical systems.

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“We’re beginning to see that trend. We’re going that direction. So if it in fact does happen the way we expect it to, that would in fact lead to a near or below-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin.”

NOAA predicts 8 to 13 named tropical storms and three to six hurricanes this season. The average is six hurricanes.

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Forecasters missed the mark last year, though, when their prediction of an especially busy hurricane season never materialized.