Computer Simulation Says 49ers Most Likely To Win Super Bowl, Eagles 0.5% Chance
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Sports Fan Insider
By Spike Eskin
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – So you’re saying there’s a chance.
A computer program called The Predictalator created by Prediction Machine simulated the NFL season 50,000 times, says that the 49ers are the most likely team to win the Super Bowl this season, winning in 20.1% of the simulations. The Eagles won the Super Bowl in 0.5% of the simulations.
Here’s how the simulations work:
Just as the Predictalator plays each individual NFL game 50,000 times before it’s actually played, it can also play the entire NFL season 50,000 times before it’s actually played. The actual 2013 regular season and playoff schedules have been played 50,000 times, allowing us to compute average records and likelihoods of each team making the playoffs, winning its division and bringing home the Super Bowl trophy.
Denver, the AFC’s top-seed, wins the Super Bowl 14.6% of the time. The Green Bay Packers (10.5%), New England Patriots (8.9%), Seattle Seahawks (7.2%) and Houston Texans (7.1%). No other team has more than a 3% chance of winning.
There are 11 teams that win between 1.5% and 3.0% of the simulations.
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The Predicalator also predicted the outcome of every Eagles game. The average score of the season opener against the Redskins has the Eagles falling by an average score of 32.4 to 26.2. The Eagles are favored to win their next two games, against the Chargers and the Chiefs. They are only favored to win four of the 16 games on the schedule, but finish with an average of seven wins. They have a 22.8% chance of making the playoffs.
The Eagles have the 11th ranked offense in the simulations, and the 29th ranked defense. Their greatest strengths are “speed and tempo,” and their greatest weakness is listed as “uncertainty.”
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