Last Fan Standing: Week 4
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- We are one month in and the NFL's yearly class system is starting to take shape. Sure it's still too early to lock any team into a tier, but having a sense of the larger picture will certainly help you in your lonely quest to stay standing.
Here's a quick breakdown with my own personal breakdown within the breakdown. Let's break it down.
There are seven 3-0 teams with Arizona, New England and Green Bay in the top-1 percent. The Cardinals have a plus-77 point differential, far and away the best in the league. The Patriots and Packers play with the only two quarterbacks with more than eight touchdown passes and no interceptions. Coincidentally, they are also the two best players at the most important position in the sport.
As for the other four, I'd put the Broncos as the next to break into that group with the Bengals close behind. You could flip the team names in that sentence and I wouldn't bother to argue.
There are four 0-3 teams, and all remain great choices to pick against. There may be some hope left in Baltimore considering they could easily be 2-1 if a few plays went their way (the best of a bad bunch, the Ravens point differential is minus-14, which is damn good compared to the Bears' minus-59). But the Ravens would have to go 10-3 the rest of the way for a shot at the playoffs. Last week's home loss to the Bengals is a real killer.
Now the middle-class, or the other 21 NFL teams. Six are 2-1 and 15, yes 15, are 1-2. The 2-1 group is a odd bag that features the Cowboys and Steelers, two teams that will be playing the next month or so without significant pieces on offense, and the Bills and Raiders, who have a combined one winning season in the last decades. The other two 2-1 teams are the Vikings and Jets and my official take on those teams is ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
The 1-2 teams are where you need to watch your step, whether picking to win or lose. These are the teams that will either ascend based on schedule or past success (Colts, Seahawks, and hopefully the Eagles...please) or spiral into a mess because they're playing like they already quit on their coach, just aren't good enough yet, or refuse to play Johnny Football (Dolphins, Jaguars, Browns). Buy low or sell high, because tiers change and there are no mulligans here.
Week 3 was what Week 2 was supposed to be---quiet.
The biggest culprit of the week was forgetfulness or maybe a poor Internet connection. Whatever it was, 60 of the 122 eliminated are out because they didn't make a pick. Come on, people. You get past the Week 2 slaughter and then shut it down? "You miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take. – Wayne Gretzky" – Michael Scott.
If you want to wake up early or stay up late you can take the Jets over the Dolphins in what should be a beautifully unwatchable game in London, or take the Seahawks over the Lions on Monday night in Seattle. But why complicate things? Live in that top tier.
This week you can ride any of the 3-0 teams into Week 5. All should improve to 4-0: Falcons vs. Texans, Bengals vs. Chiefs, Packers at 49ers, Rams vs. Cardinals, Broncos vs. Vikings (Patriots on the bye).
I left one out because it's the one I'd consider using first. The Panthers are playing the Bucs in Tampa Bay. Yes, I know, a divisional road game and the Bucs just knocked out over 8,500 fans, myself included, when they beat the Saints. I never learn.
Looking at the Panthers schedule, though, now is your only chance to use them in the foreseeable future. They have a bye in Week 5, and then face the Seahawks, Eagles, Colts and Packers. That's no fun. Carolina is 3-0 because they have taken care of the bad teams in front of them and that should continue on Sunday.
The Bucs have struggled mightily on offense in their two games not against the Saints. Jameis Winston is barely completing 50 percent of his passes, only the Chiefs are worse on third down and they are last in offensive DVOA for the second-straight week.
Cam Newton knew before the season that with the injuries around him he'd have to take on more of the offense. He's done that, accounting for all of the Panthers' touchdowns either in the air or on the ground. On the other side, they don't give up many points (16 points allowed per game, second-best in the NFL) and have been strong against the weak passers they've seen.
Winston should learn from Cam, and ultimately we learn the most in defeat. The Panthers over the Bucs.
