Porter: 3 Bold Eagles Predictions
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Ah, good ole' July.
When the two major winter sports are undergoing roster changes, when baseball is deep enough into its tenuous season and distant enough from its intriguing postseason to keep us disinterested, and when football is taking its harrowing month-long yearly nap.
Specifically here in Philly, our baseball team is the league's worst, while our football team is the league's most polarizing. July is simply the in-between time after your garden salad (April and May), before the rare, juicy Filet mignon (September), if you will.
Philadelphia is starving for football and no team, arguably, has more 2015 storylines than the Birds.
With new names like Sam Bradford, DeMarco Murray, Ryan Mathews, Kiko Alonso, Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond, Miles Austin, and Nelson Agholor in Philly---and old names like Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, Trent Cole, Todd Herremans, Cary Williams, Evan Mathis, and still DeSean Jackson to monitor around the league---there's plenty to anticipate.
Of course, all of these name changes are headed by the captivating Chip Kelly, who enters his inaugural season as Eagles general manager.
So while we wait for our steak, what is there to do?
Read, write, and yell about futile ranking lists and bold predictions, of course! And do not think for a second I'm going to pretend that I'm above the social media era, pageview-driven NFL appetizer content, because I am certainly not.
Hence, here are my 2015 Eagles bold predictions.
Over 40 catches for Miles Austin
My conditional love of Austin has been well-documented in the form of my over-40 catch bet against Eliot-Shorr Parks.
Here's what most people see: Austin is 31-years-old, he's played in just 23 games over the last two seasons, and he's five years removed from his last 1,000 yard Pro Bowl season.
Here's what I see: Austin is only 31-years-old (doesn't it feel like he's older?), he's a two-time Pro Bowler and nine-year veteran, he's only missed nine games over the last three seasons (he has never played less than 10 games in a season), and he tallied a productive 66 catches, 943 yards, and six touchdowns just three seasons ago.
Furthermore, last year in just 12 games with the lowly Browns and their atrocious quarterback/offensive situation, Austin still managed to catch a modest 47 balls for 568 yards and two scores.
Chip Kelly has produced career-highs in catches for DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Austin is better than Riley Cooper, I don't trust Josh Huff, and the Eagles' other two receivers (Agholor and Jordan Matthews), while talented, are young. Austin will be in the mix, at the very least, and 2.5 catches per game is certainly viable.
Over 5.0 yards per carry, on about 312 attempts, for DeMarco Murray
436.
That's the number of times Murray carried the ball for the Cowboys (including the postseason) last season. He won't sniff that number as an Eagle. With Murray, Darren Sproles, and Mathews (who the Eagles love, reportedly) making up the potential best backfield in football, the carries will be dispersed.
Last year, the Birds had the league's seventh highest number of rushing attempts with 474. In 2013, the Eagles led the league in rushing attempts with 500. I expect that number to go up slightly (to around 520) in 2015 and Murray will get about 60-percent of those (312). But that will keep him fresh.
In 2014, en route to his NFL-high 1,845 regular season rushing yards, Murray averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 392 carries. The carries will go down in Philly, but the production will go up behind Pro Football Focus' No. 1 ranked 2014 run blocking o-line, even without Mathis.
312 carries at 5.0 yards per carry is 1,560 rushing yards for Murray. Sounds about right.
Jordan Matthews' numbers will digress in 2015
I'll start by saying this is not a slight on Matthews, but rather a compliment of the Eagles' improved (yes, improved) offense. Matthews caught 67 balls on 105 targets for 872 yards and eight touchdowns, as a rookie last season.
While Maclin's 85 catches and 143 targets are in Kansas City now, there are certainly more mouths to feed.
The Eagles drafted Agholor in the first round and he should start on the outside right away. Agholor is probably the most talented of the receivers, and was called a "number one wide receiver" by an NFL executive. Matthews and Huff enter their second seasons in Kelly's offense, while Cooper is still in the mix (whether we like it or not). Plus, the addition of the aforementioned Austin gives the Birds a fifth reliable option at the receiver position.
And I didn't even mention third-year tight-end Zach Ertz, who may have worked out harder than any other NFL player this offseason, nor the speedy pass-catching running back in Sproles.
67/872/8 for a rookie receiver is excellent and Matthews is going to be a superb NFL wide receiver. Nevertheless, with Agholor's talent, Ertz's potential, Austin's experience, and the Eagles' desire to run the ball, those rookie numbers for Matthews will be hard to top.
