Who Stays And Who Goes? Speculating On Expansion Draft Options For The Union
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) --- Major League Soccer's Expansion Draft doesn't take place until December 10th, but it's never too early to speculate.
This is, after all, a critical offseason for the Philadelphia Union.
In layman's terms, the "expansion draft" is a mechanism by which MLS disperses players from existing clubs to franchises that are just entering the league. New clubs can select ten players from the other teams as a way to flesh out the rosters for their inaugural seasons.
Philadelphia entered the league five years ago in the same fashion and selected Sebastien Le Toux, Alejandro Moreno, and others in the 2009 version of this draft.
This season, Orlando City and New York City FC will enter the fray as Major League Soccer's 20th and 21st teams. The clubs will alternate selections, and each can only choose one player from each existing team. That means the Union can lose a maximum of two players – one to Orlando and one to NYCFC.
The rules for this cycle have yet to be released. So we'll just keep it simple and assume that the format is essentially the same as it was when Montreal drafted in 2011.
The basics:
- Clubs are allowed to "protect" eleven of their players. These players cannot be selected by Orlando or NYC.
- Some players are entirely exempt from the process, such as home grown players, those with Generation Adidas status, and Designated Players that meet specific requirements.
- Teams that lose players in the draft will receive allocation money
Using the current roster, here's a "way-too-early" look at how I think this could shake down.
Exempt:
Zach Pfeffer
Jimmy McLaughlin
Cristhian Hernandez
Andre Blake
Pfeffer, McLaughlin, and Hernandez are home grown players. This year, only home grown players on the senior roster must be protected. I believe all three players are on the "off-budget" part of the roster, so I don't think the Union will need to use a spot on Pfeffer.
Blake was the top draft pick in 2014 and is granted exemption through his Generation Adidas status.
Protected:
- Vincent Nogueira
- Cristian Maidana*
- Maurice Edu*
- Rais Mbolhi
- Carlos Valdes
- Ethan White
- Sheanon Williams
- Andrew Wenger
- Sebastien Le Toux
- Pedro Ribeiro
- Ray Gaddis
I didn't put these names in any particular order, but let's start from the top.
Vincent Nogueira and Cristian Maidana are no-brainers. These guys were the big winter signings and they were very good in their first MLS seasons. The pair combined for 14 assists but need to bag more goals in 2015.
The only question mark with Maidana is that he's listed by the league as a Designated Player. During the last expansion draft, DPs were NOT automatically protected unless they had a no-trade clause in their contract. Stand by for updates on this one.
I'm assuming that Maurice Edu will be purchased from Stoke City. The timing confuses me, because I'm not sure exactly when his loan is set to expire. I'm sure there's some sort of mechanism that will require the Union to protect him.
Rais Mbolhi is the number one goalkeeper going into 2014. The team put a lot into getting him here and endured a lot of criticism in the process.
Carlos Valdes and Ethan White might be your starting center back pairing in 2014, depending on what happens with Edu.
If you had to make a gamble, Sheanon Williams could be the guy dropped from the list. He's been a consistent starter for years now, but if you can bring in a left back and move Ray Gaddis to the right, then you could risk leaving Williams unprotected. Gaddis just signed a contract extension and isn't going anywhere.
Andrew Wenger came on strong towards the end of the season at the left forward spot. Sebastien Le Toux was your leading goal scorer from the other side of the midfield.
I think Pedro Ribeiro will be given the final spot because he was a first round draft pick and saw significant minutes towards the end of the season.
Exposed:
Amobi Okugo*
Zac MacMath
Danny Cruz
Fabinho
Austin Berry
Brian Carroll
Conor Casey
Fred
Antoine Hoppenot
Leo Fernandes
Aaron Wheeler
Corben Bone
Richie Marquez
Brian Brown
Mike Lahoud
Let's start with Amobi Okugo.
It seems like he'll try to make this move to Europe in the coming months. You can leave him unprotected and allow another team to essentially draft his right of first refusal, or you can use a slot on him to retain those rights. This is the same mechanism that allowed Portland to secure Robbie Findley's rights in 2010, even though he had already signed with Nottingham Forest overseas. When Findley returned to the U.S., Real Salt Lake had to deal with Portland to get him back. For Okugo, it really just depends on whether you value his rights more than protecting a fringe guy like Ribeiro or Williams.
Again, depending on timing, Okugo might be off the roster before the draft takes place.
I don't think you waste two slots on goalkeepers, so Zac MacMath is left unprotected. MacMath was exempt in the last expansion draft, and so the Union protected Faryd Mondragon instead, who ending up leaving the team a few weeks later.
Danny Cruz fell behind Wenger on the depth chart this season, so I could see him being exposed, even though he does provide a good burst off the bench. Fabinho is good as fullback depth, but doesn't perform consistently enough in defense. Austin Berry had a rough year and could be a complete wild card going into 2015.
Brian Carroll and Conor Casey are two veterans on the downside of their careers, and they're making nearly $400,000 combined. Casey might be a nice bench option next season, but Carroll's best days are behind him. You can say the same about Fred.
Antoine Hoppenot, Leo Fernandes, Aaron Wheeler, and Corben Bone will certainly be exposed, along with Richie Marquez, who had a really nice season in Harrisburg.
Brian Brown's loan decision might be decided before the draft, and it seems like Mike Lahoud will be right on the cutoff line. I just don't know who you would drop from the list to make room for Lahoud.
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