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Analysis: Who Really Has The Lead?

President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney. (Getty Images/Luke Sharrett and Joe Raedle)

President Barack Obama and Gov. Mitt Romney. (Getty Images/Luke Sharrett and Joe Raedle)

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By Special Contributor Larry Kane

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Paul Ryan arrives in Central Pennsylvania Saturday, Mitt Romney to Bucks County Sunday and Bill Clinton to the Philadelphia area Monday.

The latest numbers, all averages, underscore the tightness of this contest. In the battleground states, Romney leads in three states; Florida by 1.2 percent; Virginia .5 percent and North Carolina 3.8.

Obama leads in these states: Pennsylvania 4.6 percent, Nevada 2.7, and New Hampshire 1.8, Iowa 2 percent, Minnesota 5 percent, Michigan 3.5, the big one Ohio 2.7, Wisconsin .5 percent and his smallest lead one percent in Colorado.

It looks like he has the edge but the truth is that with margins of error all these polls could have a different ending on election night.

After $2 billion of campaign spending and a year of campaigning, the real poll is set for Tuesday.