New Model Predicts Nearly 170,000 Coronavirus Deaths In US By October As Cases Spike Following 'Rush To Reopen'
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf today announced the counties that would move to the green phase of reopening next Friday. Not on the list was southeastern parts of the state that covers Philadelphia and the surrounding counties.
So this area will stay in the yellow phase for at least another two weeks, despite a continued reduction in cases of COVID-19.
While there have been new outbreaks in other parts of the country, we've been making progress in the tri-state region.
Health experts say moving forward will depend on continued precautionary measures -- wearing masks and social distancing.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy says the state's been doing a good job
"Our transmission rate has dropped to among the lowest in the United States," Murphy said.
But in 19 other states, there's been a sudden increase of COVID-19 cases. Health officials say the outbreaks appear to be in states where restrictions were limited.
"Unfortunately they backed off the kinds of precautions that people have been recommending and so am I surprised? No, not really," said Dr. John Zurlo, head of infectious diseases at Jefferson Hospital.
A lot of these states are in the south, where it's warmer. Is that impacting this trend?
"I don't think we have any real evidence that that's the case," Zurlo said.
Nationwide, there's been an overall decline of COVID-19. The surges are happening in places like Florida, where the beaches have been packed.
"Rush to reopen without taking time to put protocols in place, or even waiting for the wave to subside," Murphy said. "The foolhardiness of their actions is now being seen."
A new University of Washington model, often cited by the White House, is projecting almost 170,000 deaths by Oct. 1. It says we could also see 1,000 deaths per day by the start of October.
"The virus is going to do what the virus is going to do. I'd love to say we have full control of it, but we have to be cognizant, this has not gone away," Zurlo said.
Could the spikes seen in other parts of the country happen here?
Zurlo and other health experts say the stay-at-home restrictions in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Delaware and the gradual lifting will reduce the risk for a surge in this region.
"I think we're doing things the right way. Is it enough to open the economy? That remains to be seen, that's a challenge, but I think we have to do it gradually," Zurlo said.
Zurlo says wearing a mask in public is the most important thing you can do to guard against COVID-19. Also, if you do socialize, outside is safest.
