Coronavirus Latest: COVID-19 Circulating In US Much Earlier Than Previously Thought, New Model Shows
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- The coronavirus may have been circulating around the United States much longer than previously known, according to new modeling. It's being called the "hidden explosion."
Could you have had it? That's what many are wondering. People who were sick in February, many with a lingering cough, could that have been COVID-19?
The answer is yes, according to the new modeling.
COVID-19 was spreading undetected at least one month before cases were confirmed, according to new modeling from Northeastern University that's being reported by The New York Times.
"We had community transmission, probably to a significant degree, far earlier than we had known," Santa Clara County Public Health Director Dr. Sara Cody said.
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The new reporting says on March 1, when there were just 23 confirmed cases in the U.S., there were actually thousands. And going back to early February when the focus was on China, the virus was spreading in places like New York City, Boston and Chicago and seeing infections around the country.
The report says the coronavirus moved under the radar swiftly because adequate surveillance wasn't in place.
"That's a very interesting hypothesis that there were many cases before the first diagnose cases were apparent so we'd be pleased to look at that and analyze it," Pennsylvania Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine said.
Other doctors and scientists give more credit to the new model, but like all models, it's an estimate. This one includes people who experienced mild or no symptoms.
Antibody testing is needed to know if you've been infected, but there are accuracy concerns.
Also, if antibodies are detected, do they provide immunity? If so, for how long?
As Levine pointed out, the common cold is a type of coronavirus and people catch colds frequently.
"So the utility of the antibody testing isn't clear yet, and we're going to be doing further investigations on that," Levine said.
Officials say accurate antibody testing and a decrease in positive cases will help determine when it's safe to lift restrictions and to begin restarting the economy.
