Can Weather Predict A Phillies Win On Opening Day?
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PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Predicting wins and losses in sports is not all that different than trying to predict the weather. Each is an inexact science where you try your best to look at all the various data points to come to the most logical and, hopefully, the right conclusion. However, human nature, or Mother Nature in the case of weather, plays a large role in how all of these predictions play out in the end.
There is no true way to know if the Phillies will win on Thursday afternoon or if the high temperature that day will be exactly 60 degrees. What we can look at, though, is all the data, like who is in the starting lineup or what the pitching vs. hitting matchups look like to get a better idea of how the Phillies stack up against the Braves. The same can be said for the weather, we can look at if it will be sunny or cloudy or if rain will be in the forecast to get a better picture of how the temperatures will react throughout Thursday. This blog isn't about just what the weather will be like on Thursday afternoon -- great for Opening Day -- it is about how we can use weather as another data point to enter into the equation of whether we think the Phils will pull off the Opening Day victory.
I went back and looked at data from 2000-2018 to see how things played out for the Phillies in their last 19 home openers and I am going to share with you those findings and if I think this leads to a win or loss on Thursday, based strictly on the weather forecast.
Thursday's home opener will be only the second time in the franchise's history that the Phillies played their first home game of the season in the month of March. Not only that but it will be the earliest home opener ever in franchise history, beating out the old record of March 31, 2008. We all know what happened in 2008, could the March home opener be foreshadowing to things to come this fall? Let's hope so. Before I run down memory lane of the 2008 season, let's get back to the topic at hand, weather and this year's first home game.
Thursday's forecast is as follows: high temperature of 60 degrees with generally sunny skies and relatively quiet winds and no rain chance for game time. As stated, all data for this post comes from the last 19 home openers starting in the year 2000. Since 2000, the Phillies have gone a pitiful 6-13 in first home games of the year. That's good for a winning percentage of .462. In that time, the hottest first game was in 2007, when we got all the way to 79 degrees on game day, a game that turned out to be a loss, while the coldest game came in 2007, when our temperature was only 45. Over the last 19 years, the average high temperature for opening day sits at approximately 60 degrees, our forecast high for Thursday, and while there have not been any games where the high temperature for the day was exactly 60, we can still examine how things played out when our temperature was either above or below that average mark, and decide if we want to come in either warmer or cooler than normal.
Since 2000, there have been 10 games where the high temperature for the day was less than average. In those 10 games the Phillies have won four, good for a winning percentage of .400, not great but very similar to their overall winning percentage in this time frame. There have also been nine games where the high temperature for the day was higher than average. In those nine games, the Phillies have won two, a winning percentage of .222. When you compare the number of wins when temperatures are below average to when they are above average, the Phillies win twice as much in the cooler temperatures, four wins, as they do in the warmer temperatures, two wins. This means that over 60 percent of their home opener wins come on days with cooler than normal temperatures.
Next, let's see how rain or no rain factors into the equation on Opening Day. Since 2000, there have been 11 days where it rained for Opening Day and eight days where it was dry. Thursday's forecast right now should remain dry for the game. This bodes well for us Phillies fans. In the eight games where the conditions were dry, the Phillies are great, a 5-3 record for a winning percentage of .625! Let's hope that Mother Nature doesn't pull any tricks and it stays dry for us.
So what does all of this mean for predicting a Phillies win on Thursday? Well, not a whole lot. But if you are looking for an advantage if you're making a bet with your friends or if you just are a sports and weather nerd like me, it can be pretty cool to look at the numbers and see if there is any connection between the weather and a Phillies win, and based on the last 19 games worth of data, I am going to hope that maybe we come in slightly cooler than the forecast high of 60 and place my bet on the Phillies to "Get The W" on Thursday afternoon and start the year off right!
