By Steven Strouss
PHILADELPHIA (CBS)–As we brush off the snow from our minor Winter event overnight, our attention has quickly shifted to another system brewing across the Southeast United States.
Winter Storm Warnings have been posted from Alabama, through the Carolinas, to Virginia as a broad area of low pressure strengthens with Gulf moisture and begins to climb up the coastline on Saturday.
As it heads north, a fresh supply of Arctic air will move in but confidence remains low on exactly how far west the back edge of the storm tracks and subsequently how much snow falls in our region. Even now, there are a few possible scenarios and it’s a very close call either way.
Our more reliable weather models, the GFS and the EURO are in agreement that this developing winter storm skims the coast with modest amounts.
The NAM model is more aggressive bringing much more snow to the area.
As each new model run comes in, fluctuations on timing, track, intensity, and duration occur. There is a lot of uncertainty with this particular storm but early indications are that this will be a quick, all snow event, with the highest amounts of snow South and East of Philadelphia and especially along the coast.
HOW MUCH SNOW?
If the storm trends west, more snow will accumulate for interior locations and if it trends too far east, we will receive nothing at all. We’ll have to wait until this storm starts to turn to get a better handle on it but one thing is for sure, the ingredients are there (cold air, abundant moisture and coastal development) and the potential exist for several inches for the Delaware Beaches and the Jersey Shore.
Our snow map this morning has a coating to 2″ for Philadelphia and 2-4″ for central and southern NJ with the potential for over 4″ along the coast. We may modify these numbers higher this afternoon as the models have been trending slightly further inland.
A Winter Storm Watch has already been issued for our shore points to warn of this ahead of time and the Eyewitness Weather Team will be providing updates on this storm as new information comes in.