By Kate Bilo

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — So far this year, the tropics haven’t been much trouble for those of us along the Eastern Seaboard. While this is a good thing, it’s important to remember that the peak of hurricane season is late August into September, and thus we haven’t even gotten to the most active part of the season just yet.

Thursday, NOAA released an updated hurricane outlook for the year, and the numbers have been increased in all categories.

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Today’s update:
– 12-17 named storms
– 5-8 hurricanes
– 2-4 major hurricanes

Original Outlook:
– 10-16 named storms
– 4-8 hurricanes
– 1-4 major hurricanes

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Also, the original outlook gave a 25% chance of a below-normal season, while today’s update cuts that potential to only 15%, and ups the potential of an above-average season to 35%.

While these numbers still reflect a nearly average hurricane season, it has been relatively quiet in the tropics for the past few years, and this outlook shows the most active season potentially since 2012.

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Hurricane experts decided to change the outlook based on changing factors like a declining El Nino, slackening trade winds over the Atlantic, and an active African monsoon season. In addition, water temperatures are very warm off the Atlantic coast, so locally, conditions are becoming ever more favorable for storms to strike.