PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – John Fund, a writer from National Review, is attempting to make the case that, despite media hype to the contrary, Donald Trump is not the inevitable Republican presidential nominee and still has a lot of work to do if he intends to represent the party in November’s election.
Fund, during an interview with Chris Stigall on Talk Radio 1210 WPHT, acknowledged Trump has very loyal supporters, but pointed out he has not yet made the case to a majority of the party.
“Donald Trump is soaking up 70 percent of the free media coverage in this race. Our campaign has become a reality show, which suits him perfectly. But when the voters go to the polls, about a third vote for Donald Trump…He gets 24 percent in Iowa, 35 percent in New Hampshire, 32 percent in South Carolina. I’ve yet to see him crack one-third. The reason is he has a high floor, he’s got a fanatical group of followers, but he’s got a low ceiling. Only forty percent of Republicans have a favorable opinion of him.”
He sees a lengthy campaign lasting throughout the Summer before the GOP settles on a candidate.
“Unless something changes dramatically, I think we’re going to see a very long race for the nomination that goes all the way to the convention in Cleveland, rather than a Trump coronation, as everybody in this media enabling world is predicting…You have to get 46 percent, approximately, of the popular vote in the primaries, even with the nine winner-take-all states that are our there to get 51 percent of the delegates, which is what you need to nominate.”
Fund stated that if Trump’s two top contenders, Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, came to an agreement where one dropped out and endorsed the other, Trump could be defeated, but he doesn’t see that happening at this point.
“They both are getting good support. They both have good ground games. They’ve had stumbles along the way, but they believe that eventually people are going to look at electability. We’re no longer voting just for President in November. We’re voting for the Supreme Court as well. The one thing that everybody should realize is in the Real Clear Politics average of all the polls, this is about the best numbers we have, Cruz beats Hillary, Rubio beats Hillary, Trump does not.”