Revisiting Our Preseason Sixers Prop Bets
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) --- The NBA needs to come back. This week hiatus for the All-Star game, the unofficial midway point of the season, is way too long. The schedule doesn't get rolling again until Thursday, but the 76ers aren't back on the court until Friday. All this time away from Jerami Grant has me thinking about a few Sixers prop bets I placed before the season.
I know you were right there with me in October, putting your hard-earned money on the line to bulk up your bank account, and I take that responsibility very seriously. With 29 games left to go most of these are not yet winners or losers, but checking in to see how many, if any, are in the green will give us a good sense of whether I'll be paying off some student loans or abandoning this column halfway through because my bookie is tracking my location.
Tony Wroten – Points Per Game – Over 13.5
WINNER! I called this one free money back in October, and I'm here to collect. While we all miss seeing Tony on the floor, he did the prop proud in the 30 games we did get from him, averaging 16.9 PPG. These bets only require playing 20 games for a payout, so Wroten's abbreviated season counts where it matters: our pockets. Get well soon, @TWroten_LOE, and #ThankYouGODForBlessingMeWithAHotStart.
Henry Sims – Rebounds Per Game – Under 7.5
Guap. Guap. Guap. Sims' 7 RPG in 26 games a year ago skewed this one, but with Nerlens Noel entering the fold we knew that number would drop. And it has. In seven fewer minutes per game than last season, and 10 fewer minutes than Noel, Sims hasn't been able to clean up those easy boards that were so up for grabs without competent big men around him. Shout out to Spencer Hawes. Sims is averaging 5.3 rebounds, and unless he's been spending this time off with Dennis Rodman I feel confident about this one.
Nerlens Noel – Points Per Game – Under 10.5
Nerlens Noel – Rebounds Per Game – Over 8.0
Nooooo, Nerlens ends the hot streak. I do believe in Noel's ability to bump his 7.2 RPG up over 8 as much as I believe in him not to make a scoring leap from his current position of 8.2 PPG. Noel is recovering only 51.5 percent of his rebounding chances, which isn't terrible if you're comparing him to his teammate Sims but otherwise, yes, that's pretty terrible. However, the Sixers are shooting 41 percent from the field this season, dead last in the league, and opponents are shooting 44.8 percent against them, which is league average. Point being, there will be plenty of misses on both ends of the floor for Noel to creep above where we need him to be.
As for the scoring, I think its fair to say 10.5 was a bit of a stretch for year one.
Wait one more Nerlens prop.
Nerlens Noel - Steals + Blocks Per Game – Under 3.6
Even though this one is currently in the money (he's at 3.28) I wish I had the over just for my rooting interest. We knew Noel's defensive game would translate, but I didn't expect him to average more than a steal and a half per game. Those long arms and hands are everywhere, and the effort is duly noted. Keep doing you, Nerlens, I'm happy to take a loss here. Well, not happy, but I'm trying to be supportive.
Michael Carter-Williams – Points Per Game – Over 18
Michael Carter-Williams – Assists Per Game – Under 6.5
Uh oh. It appears I have hit a cold patch. MCW is averaging 15.0 PPG and 7.4 APG this season. He has had no problem getting to the rim. Carter-Williams is second in the league in drives per game and almost half his points, 6.8 per game, come from those attempts near the basket. The problem is that his shooting hasn't improved. His field goal percentage is slightly down from last year to 38.0, and is three-point range is non-existent. He is also last among point guards in free throw percentage at 64.3, but why single out point guards when there are 17 centers who are better at the line. That hurts since so much of what he's good at translates to trips to the charity strike. Points left on the court, points left on the court.
But boy can he dish it out! He's almost a full assist better than his over/under. I thought the Tank 2.0 would lead to more takes of his own and less help from the rest, but Brett Brown has these guys playing like an actual basketball team. When the Sixers lose, he's right around that number, averaging 6.6 assists, but in the 11 wins with MCW on the floor he's averaging 9.5. This leads us right to the final prop.
76ers Regular Season Win Total – Under 16
So at 12-41, they only need five wins to shock the world and hit the over. Do I regret doubting the Sixers and being incredibly boring by picking the under? Not a chance. I've been onboard and comfortably seated in the tank and wanted to follow the master plan. In my defense, I made this pick more than two weeks before they signed Robert Covington. But hey, this one is still very much up in the air; it took them 33 games to get their fifth win. These upcoming games should determine a lot, because they have a brutal stretch at the end of March with 8 of 11 games on the road. I'm surprised this over/under wasn't set at 15.5 or 16.5 to avoid the push that's obviously coming when they end up 16-66.
Speaking of pushes, to recap, the props are 5-3 if these results hold and 4-4 if the Sixers go over 16 wins. I'll be holding out for a 6-2 finish and the number one overall pick. This starts now.
