Suicide Watch: Week 15
*Reminder: The 94WIP Suicide Pool homepage is CBSPhilly.com/suicidepool.
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) --- Only three weeks left, it's hard to believe. Actually, I take that back, it's not that hard to believe. Every year the football season flies by and one morning you wake up on wild card weekend. Football is the most fun, and there's a saying about time, flying and fun. It worked in the exact opposite way during baseball season, when it felt like the Phillies were playing 162 games over a four-year span (love you, Jimmy).
The Suicide Pool is shaping up for a dramatic conclusion as long as the weekly death rate continues to hang around 15, which is the number of people we lost on Sunday. There are 33 hopefuls left, so if that repeats over the next two weeks we are looking at a week 17 showdown between the last three competitors. Can you feel the excitement? The final batch of survivors in a pool that was once filled with 20,000 people, all with their ring size in hand, waiting for fate to decide a champion. It's a beautiful thing.
The 15 that were lost came from two of the biggest disappointments of the season, the Saints and the 49ers. Both teams made the playoffs a year ago, and while the dream of a postseason berth is still alive, they already have five more combined losses than they did in 2013. As for those postseason dreams, the Niners and Saints' playoff chances, compiled by Football Outsiders, took a big hit last week as both teams suffered a more than 20 percent drop in their odds.
San Fran is barely on life support. After losing to Oakland and with a coach who has both feet out the door, they are given only an 8.3 percent chance at making the playoffs via a wild card spot. The Panthers whacked the Saints at home (but oh my god, the Saints never lose at home! Update: the Saints are 3-4 in the Superdome), and yet New Orleans still has the best chance of winning their division at 49.4 percent. The currently-in-first-place 5-8 Atlanta Falcons have a 37.5 percent chance to get the 4-seed and host a playoff game. In related news, I can't wait to bet against the NFC South in the playoffs.
Those were the two NFC teams that saw the largest, negative change in their postseason odds. The third? That would be the Philadelphia Eagles. The loss to Seattle knocked them down 14.3 percent from a near certainty to a comfortable favorite, currently at 79.2 percent. That number will help you sleep easy. What might keep you up is how that number breaks down, a 74.9 percent chance of winning the division and a 4.3 percent chance of winning a wild card.
With head-to-head losses to four other teams in the race, beating Dallas Sunday night and locking up the NFC East in one of the final two weeks is becoming the only road to more football in Philly. Yes, the Birds could split with Dallas and cheer for Andrew Luck and the Colts to clean up their mess while finishing off Washington and the Giants, but as the NFL continues to remind us: trust no one. If you want something done, do it yourself. Beat Dallas.
Let's get back to the pool, make some picks and get out of here. The longer I drag this out, the longer it's going to take to get to Sunday night at the Linc.
Grim Reaper Selection – Patriots vs. Dolphins – Chiefs vs. Raiders
It's a divisional, revenge game double feature, and I'm giving out both. If you have either team available, lock it in. Especially Kansas City, since they finish the year with unfavorable matchups against the Steelers and Chargers. The Raiders beat the Chiefs three weeks ago, then lost 52-0, and then beat the 49ers. It's time for another lopsided loss.
The Dolphins week 1 win over New England feels like a lifetime ago. That's probably because the key for Miami was Knowshon Moreno, who rushed for 134 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. Moreno has been out since October. New England didn't bother to try to run the ball that game, 19 rushing attempts compared to 56 Tom Brady pass attempts, but expect a more balanced attack this time. The Dolphins have fallen to 28th in rush yards allowed per attempt and 18th in run defense DVOA. The Pats are undefeated at home and back after a two-game road trip.
Best Bet for Survival – Ravens vs. Jaguars
Here's the largest point spread of the week. If you still have the Ravens, I'll see you next week.
Cheating Death – Bears vs. Saints
Two terrible teams in the worst Monday night game of the year! Gruden is going to have a blast with this one. After that showing against the Panthers last week, I'd pick just about any team to beat the Saints here. It helps that they will be outside in the cold facing a team with a playmaking receiver and running back that will torch their defense. And the Saints are actually favored in this game. That line should disgust Jay Cutler as much as football fans everywhere will be disgusted when they watch this game.
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