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Suicide Watch: Week 13

By Justin Boylan

*Reminder: The 94WIP Suicide Pool homepage is CBSPhilly.com/suicidepool.

 

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) --- By the time we got to the Monday night roadblock game between the Ravens and Saints, the 94WIP Suicide Pool was down to 478 people.  The big blow came on Thursday when 100 competitors were knocked out because the Oakland Raiders finally won a game.

Sunday was calm.  The Packers, Chargers, 49ers and Cowboys were all facing upsets that would have killed some of the remaining pool population, but each team held on.  In fact, the only Sunday death was one person who picked the Titans, but that person is a troll living under a bridge somewhere.  So there was a lot riding on the Ravens-Saints roadblock.

These roadblock games are set and selected much like Vegas setting a line.  The objective is to get equal action on both sides.  For Suicide Pool purposes, even action, or close to it, will guarantee that regardless of the result the remaining group will be cut in half.  Well, it was far from even action Monday night.

The split was 375 to 103.  The majority was on the home team.  Old habits don't die, I suppose, as 78 percent of the pool went with the Saints in the Superdome in primetime, a formula that has been very successful for most of the Drew Brees-Sean Payton era.  That's all I got.  I can't defend picking the Saints, because I didn't.  I gave you all the Ravens!

Shout out to Justin Forsett and Will Hill, the offensive and defensive MVPs of the game for the Ravens.  Forsett ran the ball like a machine, ripping off 8.3 yards per carry on his way to 182 yards and two touchdowns.  Hill flipped the game in the third quarter, tied 17-17 the Saints faced 3rd and 7 when a Brees pass was a little behind Jimmy Graham.  Hill picked it off and went 44 yards the other way for a touchdown.  The Ravens led the rest of the way.  Hill covered Graham all night, holding him to six catches on 10 targets, and even though Graham scored two touchdowns it would have been four if not for Hill.  So 103 survive, on to week 13.

What's that?  Oh no, it can't be.  It isn't?  It is.  Oh my god.  ANOTHER ROADBLOCK.  Yes, and it's the smoking-hot matchup between the Packers and Patriots.  Good luck with this one.   Both teams are on fire offensively, ranked first and second in points per game and separated by .3 points (Patriots with the slight advantage).  They are also 1-2 in turnover differential, with both teams having at least 20 takeaways and fewer than 10 giveaways (Packers with the slight advantage at +15, Pats are +10).

Their passing games are equally terrifying.  The Patriots have the second-ranked pass offense per DVOA, and the Packers are third.  Green Bay, however, is second in total offense DVOA thanks to their eighth-ranked rushing attack, while the Patriots are fourth on offense because of their 20th-ranked run game that has struggled to convert on short yardage situations.  Where the Packers defense has been most vulnerable, in terms of yards allowed, is on the ground.

Both teams' pass defense is around league average in yards per game (the Packers are a little better at 13th than the Patriots at 17th).  Looking at defensive DVOA, it's even closer.  New England is 10th with the 12th-ranked pass defense, and Green Bay is 12th with a pass defense that ranks 13th.

Maybe it will come down to pressure on the quarterback, except neither team has above-average sack numbers.  The Packers get 2.5 sacks per game and the Patriots are a shade worse at 2.3 (Green Bay is 14th in adjusted sack rate, New England is 16th).  Both teams are in the top 10 in converting third downs.  The Packers are 1.1 percent better.  Try taking that to the bank.

These teams are just about dead even any way you slice it, and there is no history you can point to because Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have never started against each other.  Brady is 2-1 against the Packers with a loss in 2002, two months before Rodgers' 19th birthday.  Brady won in Lambeau in 2006 against Brett Favre, and he beat the Packers at home in 2010 during a stretch when Matt Flynn had to play for a concussed Rodgers.

Here's what it comes down to: location, location, location.

Rodgers at home: 5-0, 66.7 completion %, 1,413 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, zero interceptions, 9.8 yards per attempt, 138.1 QB rating.

Brady on the road: 3-2, 61.7 completion %, 1,175 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 7.0 yards per attempt, 90.8 QB rating.

I'll take the Packers, but like I said, good luck with this one.

Grim Reaper Selection – Dolphins at Jets

Miami went toe-to-toe with Denver in Mile High and nearly came away with a win.  Meanwhile, the Jets are the worst team in NFL history to play consecutive Monday night football games.

Best Bet for Survival – Colts vs. Redskins

Colt McCoy magic only works in primetime.

Cheating Death – Eagles at Cowboys

Take us home, Bradley Cooper!!!

 

Happy Thanksgiving.

 

Justin Boylan is a producer at 94WIP. Follow him on Twitter @justintboylan.

 

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