By Andrew Porter

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — You shouldn’t bet on football games. You’re going to lose. I would never do it.

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Having said that, if you insist on gambling on Sunday’s, at least use some of the helpful information from OddShark.com. Here are some week nine trends that can help us, I mean you, on Sunday.

 

Philadelphia at Houston, +1  (1:00 PM)

  • Texans 0-3 SU lifetime vs Eagles
  • Texans 0-6 SU and ATS when dogs of 1-3 points
  • Eagles 5-1 SU past six games vs AFC South teams
  • Texans 9-2 ATS before a bye week (excludes 2008 when bye was moved to Week 2 because of Hurricane Ike)

 

The key to the game is simple—get ahead early and don’t turn the ball over. The Texans are among the best teams in takeaways, the Eagles are among the worst teams in giveaways. The Texans have one of the NFL’s top running backs and one of the worst quarterbacks (hint: they want to run and control the clock). The Texans have a scary defensive front (see: Watt, J.J.) and he’s much scarier when he can pin his ears back with a lead, and do what he wants.

Score early, score often, and control the clock.

 

Notable:

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  • Cowboys 14-1 SU at home vs Arizona since 1990
  • Texans 0-6 SU and ATS when dogs of 1-3 points; have never beaten Eagles (0-3)
  • Chiefs have been double-digit chalk just five times since Dec. 1994, 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS
  • Chargers and Dolphins have played 11 times since 1995, every game went UNDER the total
  • Niners hosted Rams after their bye in 2010 and 2012 and failed to cover either time
  • Just the fifth time since 2002 the Pats are home dogs – three of previous four times were vs Peyton Manning
  • Home team 9-1 SU past 10 meetings of Broncos and Patriots
  • Tom Brady is 10-5 SU, 8-6-1 ATS vs Peyton Manning lifetime (see chart of every game below my signature)
  • Raiders have lost 14 of last 15 road games SU
  • Raiders are 9-3 ATS past 12 as double-digit underdogs

 

Head-to-Head Stat Edges:

  • Dallas #1 run game vs Arizona #3 run defense
  • Colts #1 overall offense (451 YPG) vs Giants #27 overall defense (384 YPG)
  • Chiefs #1 defending the pass (195.7 YPG) vs Jets worst passing attack (179 YPG)
  • Texans #2 in forced turnovers vs Eagles who are dead last in committing turnovers

 

Porter’s Picks (if I were to bet, which of course, I don’t):

  • Denver -3.5 at New England

Denver can’t blow every team out, right? Tom Brady and the Pats are hot and they’re very good at home, as you know. The home is 9-1 straight up the last 10 times these teams have faced each other and it’s 5th time since 2002 you can get the Pats and points, in Foxborough.

  • Indy -3.5 at New York Giants

The Giants are coming off a bye and they’ve won seven straight following their bye week. The Colts secondary stinks, is banged up, and just gave up 6,000 points to Big Ben and the overrated Steelers. Andrew Luck and the Colts offense is potent, no question about it, but they’re a different team on the road. Gimme the G-men and the points.

 

*All lines courtesy of Bovada LV

 

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