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Sorting Out Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District Primary Race

DELAWARE COUNTY, PA (CBS) -- Congressman Pat Meehan's use of tax-payer dollars to pay what he calls "severance" to a woman he described as his "soul-mate" is throwing an already tumultuous congressional race into what's now being described as "chaos."

The so-called "Trump-effect," the natural swing of power in mid-term elections, allegations of harassment against Democratic front-runner Daylin Leach, and now controversy surrounding Republican incumbent Pat Meehan are all playing key roles in Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District.

"But the big question is, 'What is the district going to look like?'" said political consultant Neil Oxman.

He says the new boundaries will likely dictate who's going to run. For example, if the 7th becomes Delaware County and part of Philadelphia, he says it would be unlikely to see Leach in the primary.

But if it includes Upper and Lower Merion, "I actually – not withstanding what everyone in the world has told him – I would expect Daylin Leach would end up running in the seat, which would be utterly surreal," said Oxman.

On the Republican side, Oxman says he imagines Delaware County GOP bosses are having tough conversations regarding Meehan's candidacy.

"You can't control human behavior. And so who knows what Pat Meehan's going to do, who knows what Daylin Leach is going to do, who knows what the legislature is going to do, or Gov. Wolf, or the Supreme Court," Oxman said.

Mark Nevins from Dover Strategy Group threw another wrench in the cogs.

"Right now we're using terms like 'Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District' and we don't really know what that means. Right now it means one thing, a week from now, a month from now, two months from now, it could mean something totally different," said Nevins.

One theory from Nevins: state Republicans shift the district to move Meehan into a position where he would be up against another Republican, for example, Ryan Costello in Chester County or Lloyd Smucker in Lancaster, giving Meehan a way to bow out gracefully.

Bottom line, until we see the new congressional map, all bets are off.

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