Weather Blog: Holiday Weekend Forecast

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) –– Whenever a potential long holiday weekend comes around we are always looking for nice weather to go along with the extra days off.

It looks as though we are going to get our wish of some nicer conditions as we roll through the holiday weekend and into early next week as we celebrate the 4th of July.

A couple very weak boundaries will try to sweep through the region and while a couple of showers are a possibility in areas, we are not looking for a washout of a day for any of the weekend or early next week.

We can start by taking a look at our Friday and into the start the weekend. Friday is likely going to be a sunny or mostly sunny day thanks to the fact that there are no real surface features to speak of. A large area of high pressure has moved farther off the coastline and even though a weak low is pushing through the Great Lakes, we are not seeing any effect from it just yet.

What this means for Friday is warm and humid air is going to be pumped into the Delaware Valley on southwest winds, warming us into the 90s for Friday afternoon. Due to the higher humidity and the warm air that is in place we could see a couple of showers or an isolated rumble of thunder fire up later on in the day and mainly to the north of the city, in the Poconos and the Lehigh Valley mostly. A stray shower or thundershower cannot be completely ruled out in the Philly area but in general, we should remain dry here and down at the shore points.  Temperatures are likely to climb into the 90s in the city while we get into the middle 80s at the shore and Poconos on Friday afternoon.

The most active day of the weekend is going to be Saturday.  The low-pressure system will exit the Great Lakes region on Saturday along with the accompanying cold front and slowly trek toward the area.  As it does and instability increases across Pennsylvania we could look for strong to even severe thunderstorms in areas in Central PA. There is a Slight Risk for severe weather or a 15 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point on Saturday. While the Philadelphia area and South Jersey are not in the Slight Risk, the Lehigh Valley and Poconos are, so we will have to remain weather aware north and west of the city on Saturday afternoon as the cold front approaches from the west.  If we do see any severe weather the biggest threat on Saturday will be strong, straight line winds.  The best chance to see a thunderstorm on Saturday will be in the second half of the day. High temperatures on Saturday in the city will be in the lower 90s while we sit in the lower 80s in the surrounding areas.

As we wrap the weekend up, Sunday will be warm and slightly less humid than Friday and Saturday since we will be on the back side of the weak cold front and a weaker westerly or northwesterly flow will allow slightly drier air to move in. A very slim chance for a shower or thunderstorm is possible before sunrise on Sunday, followed by clearing skies and high temperatures once more up near 90°.

Finally, as we move into the week and get even closer to the 4th on Monday we can expect another very warm and slightly less humid afternoon, with plenty of sunshine. A very slim chance for a shower will be held onto in the later half of the day as a second weak front tries to sweep across the state but in general, we should remain dry for Monday with highs in the upper 80s. The 4th itself is looking wonderful with highs in the upper 80s in the city and plenty of sunshine, while the shore should sit in the lower 80s with tolerable humidity and mostly sunny skies.  In the Poconos it looks as though we are likely to reach highs in the upper 70s but with much higher humidity and with mostly sunny skies.

Always remember to keep up to date with the forecast on CBSPhilly.com and follow the Eyewitness Weather Team on Social Media for all up to the minute forecast updates.

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