Last Fan Standing: Week 10
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- Wow what a run. That really went well. Of course, if I didn't violate Pool Rule #3: don't save teams, I would have used the Bengals last week to get through and figured the rest out now. Instead, I banked on being around to use the Bengals this week against the Texans and went with my second choice.
Hell, I could have gone with my third choice, the Eagles, and still been standing. Big shout out to the Eagles, by the way, for not losing to Matt Cassel and keeping us all temporarily sane. I had a rough week outside of the home team getting a win (please allow a quick recap of my fantasy week: Justin Tucker's bye lined up perfectly with the first week in two years that Robbie Gould missed two field goals. Robbie gave me one finger and zero points, I lost by one), so a loss to the Cowboys on top of my second, swift exit from Last Fan Standing would have murdered this column.
It lives on, though, for the 170 fans that definitely don't need my help. The Saints basically cut the pool in half, knocking out 152 of us.
The Saints offense came out of the gate like they were supposed to, scoring 21 first-half points. But they added just seven more in the last two quarters and overtime. If you're only going to score 28 points and Rob Ryan is your defensive coordinator, take the loss and call it a day. I don't blame Ryan, or his players, for a freak play on 3rd and 6 that ended in a touchdown (even though the two Saints involved clearly didn't know where the other one was on the field). I just blame him for everything else.
For the second-straight year, Ryan is in charge of a bottom-two defense. Any way you slice it, yards, points allowed, DVOA, the Saints are the 31st or worst team in the league. Marcus Mariota looked like an all-pro veteran, throwing for 371 yards and four touchdowns, not a rookie who hasn't played in almost a month.
The game-winner in OT is all you needed to see. On 2nd and goal, the entire Titans offense rolled to the right and all the Saints followed. Anthony Fasano slipped through and ran the other direction, a move we see like every single Sunday, completely unguarded to make the easiest catch of his 10-year, less-than-two-receptions-per-game career. Update your resume, Rob. Actually, you probably shouldn't.
This week, take the Bengals. The Texans are coming off the bye, but Cincinnati had the long week following a Thursday night game. The three teams Houston has beaten have a total of seven wins between them, and as you may have heard, the Bengals are 8-0.
Speaking of, which of the three undefeated teams will last the longest? I'll take Carolina for the simple fact that they don't have the Broncos on their schedule. The Patriots and Bengals both have trips to Denver ahead of them. The Bengals don't go until Week 16, but after this Houston game they play the Cardinals and Rams back-to-back and have another match with the Steelers, a game Ben Roethlisberger should be back for. There's a loss somewhere in there.
If New England wins in Denver, they can run the table but will probably be in rest-mode those last few weeks. They finish up at the Jets and at the Dolphins, two divisional rivals looking to avoid a season sweep. Regardless, I think it ends in that Broncos game. The Patriots offensive line is their biggest weakness right now and without the security of Dion Lewis to keep the pass rush honest, that Denver defense should perform like they did against Green Bay. Also, Peyton at home, at night, is like black magic at this point.
That leaves the Panthers, who have the easiest road to 16-0. Their next four games are Titans, Washingtons, Cowboys and Saints. They do have both games with Atlanta left, but the Falcons just lost to Blaine Gabbert. Their other two games are against the Giants and Bucs. In a little over a month this team could be 14-0 and I won't know how we got here. I also don't know how we got here. Focus, the Bengals over the Texans.
Two more games, and I'm giving out two teams that have never been picked to win in the same sentence before. The Oakland Raiders and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jags are playing the Ravens, a game that sounds like a terrible mismatch but both teams are 2-6 and have nearly identical averages on offense. Baltimore passing game has struggled all season and isn't likely to improve without Steve Smith Sr.
They are also 28th in pass defense DVOA, and the Jags are surprisingly competent moving the ball through the air with Allen's, Robinson and Hurns. There are two NFL teams with teammates that have six or more receiving touchdowns, the Patriots and the Jaguars. What a time to be alive, the Jaguars over the Ravens.
I like the Raiders at home and I am selling the 6-2 Vikings. Minnesota wants to win on defense, and they have been. The most points they've allowed in any of their six wins was 20 by the Bears. The problem is they only score 21 a game, which is 23rd in the league.
Oakland is the 7th-best scoring offense, and if you take out two rough days against the Bengals and Broncos they are averaging over 31 points per game. The Raiders pass attack is 4th in DVOA, and they even have a higher ranked rushing offense than the Vikings. I really like Derek Carr matched up against a guy who's been limited in practice following concussion testing, or Shaun Hill. The Raiders over the Vikings.
