Last Fan Standing: Week 7
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- It was a quiet week for the fans standing. Relatively speaking. I had a feeling after Sunday night that would be the case. My picks this year haven't exactly been a full-proof survival guide, so when the four teams I suggested went 3-1, I knew the knocked-out number would be lower than it's been the past few weeks.
Only three teams eliminated 35 or more people. Landry Jones (the Eagles have the wrong Oklahoma quarterback!) came in for Michael Vick and put the finishing touches on the Arizona Cardinals. The Falcons went down last Thursday night (I told you to stay away!), and Cam Newton rallied late to earn his first career win against the not-so-scary Seahawks (I'm not perfect!).
The rest of the games, which I called Don't Trust Me Bowls, took out a few here and there. Shout out to the one person who picked the Colts to win with properly inflated footballs. I hope he or she also bet Indy with the points and found some peace in that backdoor cover.
The Broncos, Bengals and Packers are all off this week, so if you've been saving one of them you'll have to weather the storm until they return. Which leads me to the weekly "if you still have the Patriots, take them" portion of this post, go ahead.
Although, saving the undefeated teams could start to work against you. No team will go 16-0, and the longer you wait to cash in, the greater the chance of it backfiring. Green Bay and Denver come off the bye to play each other next week, and I would much rather have the loser of that game as an available team. The Bengals, Patriots and Panthers will fall too, sooner rather than later. At this point, if you still have an undefeated team in your pocket, I recommend holding off until they drop that first game (having said that, the Pats will win this week and the beat goes on).
The Falcons, off their first loss, with a long week, are in Tennessee to play the Titans who haven't won since Marcus Mariota's Week 1 coming-out party against the Bucs. Mariota was injured Sunday when he took a hit to the knee and has not been practicing this week. He says he's hopeful about playing but that could be because the alternative for the Titans is Zach Mettenberger and his winless career record.
More surprising than Atlanta's 5-1 start has been their ability to run the ball. They have the second-most rushing yards in the NFL and are the only team with 10 or more rushing touchdowns. Devonta Freeman is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, the most of any running back with at least 100 attempts.
Defense has been the most efficient aspect of the Titans, but that success has come against the pass. Tennessee is last in run defense DVOA and has allowed 130 rushing yards per game. When the Falcons get the run going, throwing over the top to Julio Jones, who is back at practice, will be as easy as throwing to Julio Jones. The Falcons over the Titans.
Yes, the Cardinals did lose to Michael Landry Vick Jones, but I would like to chalk that up as just one of those games where nothing seems to go right. This week they host the Ravens on Monday night. Arizona scores a lot of points, 20 more than the Falcons and Pats. The Ravens give up a lot of points, 27 per game.
Baltimore shouldn't be this bad. Their point differential is only -19. I say "only" because the other 1-5 teams have differentials of -32, -52 and -63. All they've done is find ways to lose games and this is bad spot to try to turn things around. The Cards will bounce back at home, where they have never lost to a team outside of the division with Carson Palmer under center. The Cardinals over the Ravens.
The Miami Dolphins are back! That's probably a little strong, but it appears a coaching change may have done wonders for this team. Sure it's only one game, but a win like that has to give a team confidence. They are home this week against the Houston Texans. This definitely qualifies as a Don't Trust Me Bowl, as neither team has beaten anybody of significance (four combined wins against Washington, the Titans, Bucs and Jags), but it's Week 7 and you have to roll the dice once you run out of division leaders.
The only top-20 unit in this game in terms of DVOA is Miami's offense (19th), as Houston has settled as a bottom-five team. I guess Brian Hoyer is the Texans quarterback since he started last week, but that could change at any point, including during the game. The only thing to worry about is DeAndre Hopkins, who is legit monster that can eat a secondary. Okay, I'm going to stop thinking about this one before I change my mind. Keep 'em motivated, Dan Campbell! The Dolphins over the Texans.
