Porter's Pick Six: Week 1
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) -- 95 billion dollars. That's how much is expected to be bet on football this season, according to a recent ESPN article.
That's a lot of money.
So what's better than free picks? And free correct picks at that. OK, I can only guarantee they'll be free.
Each week I'll give you my six plays, in confidence order, and you can do with them as you please. Tease them, parlay them, bet them straight, or tweet me how dumb the picks are. Whichever you please.
And by the way, I'm scratching all of the crutch gambling tactics. They haven't worked for me before. Don't bet against home-division dog? I will.
*All lines courtesy of Bovada LV
6. New York Giants +6 at Dallas Cowboys
Confidence level (1-3): 1
When you have to lay more than 3 points in a divisional game, I'm always hesitant. I realize the Cowboys' secondary, with Orlando Scandrick out for the season, is suspect and guarding Odell Beckham Jr. will be tough. But that's tough for any team, and other than the Eli Manning-Beckham connection, the Giants are a complete mess.
The Giants' front-seven stinks, going up against arguably the best offensive line in football. Positive mismatch for Dallas.
The Giants' offensive line might be the worst in football. Positive mismatch for every NFL team.
I think the Cowboys control the ball with one of their four average-to-below-average running backs and dominate this game.
Prediction: Cowboys 31, Giants 21
5. Detroit Lions +3 at San Diego Chargers
Confidence level (1-3): 1.5
I'll take the point in this relatively evenly matched game. And sure San Diego is home, but that doesn't scare me.
The Chargers' left side of the offensive line with King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin is solid, but the other spots are putrid and they'll have to block a top-5 defensive line. Not a positive situation for a rookie running back in Melvin Gordon, to begin his NFL career.
Defensively, the Chargers' front-seven is average at best and all of the sudden, with the addition of Ameer Abdullah to Joique Bell and Theo Riddick, the Lions' ground game should be improved.
Prediction: Lions 24, Chargers 23
4. Seattle Seahawks -4.5 at St. Louis Rams
Confidence level (1-3): 2
I know what you're thinking: "It's a trap game!" Trap this.
Nick Foles and the league's worst offensive line, with zero offensive weapons, against a top-five defensive front. Say it with me: PICK SIX.
Prediction: Seahawks 29, Rams 13
3. Green Bay Packers -7 at Chicago Bears
Confidence level (1-3): 2.5
The Bears are a mess, just ask Joe Banner. You have a top-five GB offensive line going up against one of the league's worst front-sevens. That means: time for Aaron Rodgers and room for Eddie Lacy. That means: Not good for the Bears.
Furthermore, one of the Bears' three offensive weapons---WR Alshon Jeffrey---has a calf strain and practiced for the first time on Wednesday after missing the preseason.
Prediction: Packers 34, Bears 14
2. New Orleans +2.5 at Arizona Cardinals
Confidence level (1-3): 2.5
I'm high on the Saints this year and I think this is a rare opportunity where they will be an underdog this season.
Their offseason philosophy to build in the trenches and improve their ground game has me excited. You give Drew Brees, Brandin Cooks, Marques Colston, and C.J. Spiller a dominant ground-attack to play with, and you're looking at an elite NFL offense.
Yes, they traded Jimmy Graham but the Saints sneakily added a Pro Bowl center in Max Unger and now boast one of the league's best offensive lines, blocking for Mark Ingram, Spiller (who is out on Sunday), and the underrated Khiry Robinson (deep sleeper this week).
On the flip side, the Cardinals' front-seven is arguably the worst unit in football. Seriously. Other than Calais Campbell, the Cards don't have much talent up front. Guys like Frostee Rucker and Kevin Minter are simply not good enough.
I expect 20-plus carries and at least 100 rushing yards for Ingram in a Saints upset win.
Prediction: Saints 28, Cardinals 20
1. Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Atlanta Falcons
Confidence level (1-3): 3
All bias aside, this a nasty matchup for the Falcons. First off, Roddy White and Davonta Freeman are banged up. It looks like White should play, while Freeman's status is in doubt.
Their offensive line is brutal. Really, really bad. And the Eagles' front-seven has the makings of an elite unit. Scary situation for rookie Tevin Coleman's NFL debut.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagle have a top-ranked offensive line vs. a putrid Falcons defensive front. Chip Kelly is going to have his way on offense and we know how he loves primetime games.
This is the only Week 1 matchup where one team enters with a top-five offensive and top-five defensive front against a bottom-five offensive and a bottom-five defensive front.
Sure, Julio Jones will get his, but a lot of it will come during garbage time.
Prediction: Eagles 42, Falcons, 17
