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Fans Say Utley Should Retire, Analytics Say No

By Andrew Porter

PHILADELPHIA (CBS) --- On August 9th, 2006, after a bases clearing double, Chase Utley scored from second base on a dribbler to the pitcher.

"Chase Utley, you are the man," said legendary Phillies broadcaster Harry Kalas, which has become one of the most famous calls in Philadelphia sports history.

Back then, Utley was in the midst of a dominant five-year stretch on his way to becoming the Phillies' unquestioned greatest second baseman ever. Now, almost nine years later, "The man," is struggling.

Among qualified hitters, Utley's .118 batting average through 32 games is the worst in Major League Baseball.

Media members and fans alike have called for Utley's benching and on Friday, 77-percent of fans voting on the 94WIP Morning Show's Audio Roadshow poll said it's time for the 36-year-old second baseman to call it quits.

However, the Phillies continue to stick by their guy. In fact, Ruben Amaro Jr. told the 94WIP Morning Show that luck is playing a major role in Utley's early season struggles. Amaro went as far as to call Utley, a career .282 hitter, "the unluckiest person on the planet."

Nate Silver's analytical FiveThirtyEight.com defended Amaro's statement (the Phillies and analytics agreeing!?) in an article released on Friday. In fact, it was titled, 'Chase Utley is the luck unluckiest man in baseball.'

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, Utley's batted ball velocity is 87.7---higher than Dee Gordon (83.2) and Chris Young (81.9), and relatively close to Bryce Harper (88.3). In context, Gordon is baseball's top hitter with a .426 average, Young is hitting .288, and Harper is hitting .303.

Furthemore, Utley's .115 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is well below the .300 average BABIP. The closet player to Utley's .115 BABIP is Evan Gattis' .188.

"In Utley, we have a player whose Statcast data doesn't match the conventional narrative," Rob Arthur of FiveThirtyEight.com writes. "If the commentators and traditional data sources are correct, Utley is headed toward a premature retirement. If Statcast is right, Utley has an about average bat, one that should recover."

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