Suicide Watch: Week 16
*Reminder: The 94WIP Suicide Pool homepage is CBSPhilly.com/suicidepool.
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) --- There are only 32 happy people in Philadelphia this week. That would be the 32 left alive in the 94WIP Suicide Pool with two weeks to go. The rest of us are miserable. The rest of us are still trying to shake off that Sunday night football game. I haven't been able to get the sound of Cris Collinsworth talking about Tony Romo's injections out of my head. We're all doing our best to look forward to Washington, but the lingering stench of what could have been is still consuming the airspace.
We all knew the stakes. The Eagles and Cowboys were basically playing a winner-take-all game for the division title, and so the loss did major damage to the Eagles' postseason hopes. No team took even half as bad a hit as the Eagles did to its playoff odds. The Birds are now facing an uphill battle, a 39.5 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is a 44 percent drop from where they sat a week ago. The Eagles had destiny at their doorstep, begging to be invited inside. They couldn't close, and now it's out of their hands.
All we can do is grow neck beards to support Andrew Luck, and add "Bradley Fletcher voodoo doll" to our Christmas lists. Not to be used to injure Fletcher, that would be wrong, but maybe if you throw it across the room before a play begins it might give him that extra burst of speed he needs. I'm down to try anything at this point.
Oh right, the suicide pool. For the first time since week 11, the weekend did not cut the pool population in half. With 32 people left, there's a chance we will have more than a handful of survivors entering the final week. We have a tiebreaker in place if it comes to that, but let's take it one step at a time.
The first step is tiptoeing past week 16. It's a tricky week, and not because half of the league is off the board to pick from. There are eight home underdogs this week chomping at the bit to make some noise and pull some upsets. If you are going to ride a road team, especially a road favorite, choose wisely.
Grim Reaper Selection – Rams vs. Giants*
*The Grim Reaper's official pick, off the books, is the Dallas Cowboys hosting the Indianapolis Colts. I've already used Dallas so I won't repeat teams, but between you and me Grim is all over this game. The last time my touch of death extended to the Lone Star State it was a Monday night and Colt McCoy took down the Boys. This time it's Andrew Luck, and recent studies have shown he is a much better quarterback than McCoy. Like I said, I'll try anything at this point.
Here we go, Rams. This pick follows all the rules, a home team in a non-divisional game, and it avoids dealing with those pesky underdogs. The Rams have been playing good football for five straight weeks, since their win over the Broncos in week 11, going 3-2 over that stretch. They lost on the last play in San Diego, and you last saw them lose in an unappealing, offensive struggle on Thursday against the Cardinals.
Over this five-game, one-month span, the Rams are giving up 9.2 points per game and scoring 25.6. Those numbers are helped by two lopsided shutouts against the Raiders and Washingtons, but that means they have been able to handle the bad teams. And look, it's the Giants coming to town!
Odell Beckham Jr. will continue to be very good at football, lighting secondaries on fire with one arm tied behind his back while accounting for 99 percent of the Giants' offense (all numbers are approximations), but that one-dimensional attack will play into what the Rams like to do on defense. Give me the Rams at home over an unlikely three-game winning streak for Big Blue.
Best Bet for Survival – Bills at Raiders
THE BUFFALO BILLS. Two weeks ago, I said goodbye to the Bills' season before their loss in Denver. Now, after that win over the Packers, the Bills are still alive!
The Bills are in Oakland this week, and after facing Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers in back-to-back games, Derek Carr should be a breeze. Buffalo has THE best defense in the NFL, now officially ranked first in DVOA, while the Raiders are in a four-way tie for the worst record and first pick in the draft. Oakland doesn't want this game, the Bills do. It's that easy.
Big picture, though, the Bills are in the hunt for a wild card spot. It's a slim chance, 6.4 percent, but a chance nonetheless. They need A LOT of help and losses from the Ravens, Chiefs and Chargers, but first they need to win their last two games. That means a week 17 win over the Patriots. New England could have the number-one seed wrapped up by then, which would allow the Pats to rest their starters. Not only do the Bills have to get to 10 wins, but there can only be one other 10-win AFC team outside of the division champs (and the Ravens and Steelers both already have nine).
Cheating Death – Colts at Cowboys
I'm trying any and everything. Go Colts.
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