Suicide Watch: Week 4
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) --- Here's some inside information about the Suicide Pool: even though you are only allowed to pick a team once, there is no limit to the number of times you can pick against a team. That's good news, because through three weeks of football we are starting to see which teams are terrible, and they are much easier to identify than the good ones.
Depending on how impressionable you are, five or six teams have come out strong and so far established their above-averageness. Then there's 24 teams bunched together in the middle, all at either 2-1 or 1-2, who could beat one another on any day of the week.
94WIP Suicide Pool: CBSPhilly.com/suicidepool
Take this past Sunday night for example. The Panthers were playing at home, and even without Greg Hardy, their defense looked excellent the previous week holding the Lions to just one touchdown, allowing 3.8 yards per carry to Detroit running backs and limiting Calvin Johnson to just six catches on 13 targets. The Steelers, on the other hand, had a squeak-it-out win against the Browns and then got owned by a Ravens team in the midst of a major scandal.
So, of course, the Steelers destroyed Carolina. They ran all over them, Bell and Blount ripped off 8.5 yards per carry, scored four second-half touchdowns and Roethlisberger completed 18 of 20 passes to wide receivers. Carolina looked lost. You can't trust that bunched-together middle of the pack.
You can, however, trust the bottom three teams to continue to struggle with anything other than terrible football.
The Buccaneers were embarrassed last Thursday by the Falcons, and their minus-50 point differential is the second-worst in the league (Jacksonville). Their 15 points per game is being more than doubled by the points they are giving up, 31.7, which is also ranked 31st (Jacksonville). In the four major categories in terms of yardage per game, passing, rushing, opponent's passing and opponent's rushing, only Tampa's rushing attack ranks in the top 20.
The Oakland Raiders can't score. They are averaging a league-worst 12.3 points per game against three teams that have allowed more than 22 points to their other six opponents. The Raiders have scored 37 points in three games. The Eagles just did that last week. Their defense isn't as all-around bad as these other two teams, but Oakland's been horrific against the run. They are giving up 158.7 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 31st (Jacksonville), and two of the teams they faced start Geno Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Stopping the run is all they had to do.
Last and certainly least, we have the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags rank in the bottom-five in every statistical category I could find, and I looked for like four minutes, including turnover differential, points scored, sacks allowed and the parentheses you see above. They are the only team to rank outside the top 20 in all of the aforementioned major yardage categories and the only team to have converted fewer than 10 third downs. And now they want to put the rookie Blake Bortles back there to get killed. Sorry, Blake.
It's really a shame you can only pick against one at a time.
Guardian Selection – Steelers vs. Buccaneers
I would worry about a letdown game for the Steelers here, but the Bucs are just terrible.
Best Bet for Survival – Chargers vs. Jaguars
The Chargers are back in San Diego after a win in Buffalo last week. I would worry about a team that has traveled west to east to west in two weeks, but the Jags are just terrible.
Cheating Death – Eagles at 49ers
This is based on principle, since the national media has already marked the game down as a San Fran win. I know the quality of the Eagles' wins is directly tied to Jacksonville and the offensive line is a serious problem, but the 49ers have been a second-half disaster in each of their first three games, especially versus the pass. They have been outscored 52-3 after halftime this season, and six of the seven touchdowns they allowed were through the air. As long as it's close midway through, I'll take Chip and his well-conditioned gang. When you give up 17 unanswered points to Drew Stanton, you don't get to prematurely mark down a win against any team.
Well, maybe there are three exceptions to that.
Stay alive.
Justin Boylan is a producer at 94WIP. Follow him on Twitter @justintboylan.
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