PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – After 50,000 computer simulations, Prediction Machine determined that the most likely outcome of Super Bowl XLVIII is a 24-21 Seahawks win over the Broncos.
They’ve got some time on their hands, so they ran a few more simulation, but they changed a few things.
The first was to determine who is better, the 2013 version of Russell Wilson, or the 1999 version of Peyton Manning.
The Prediction Machine used their NFL prediction software, The Predictalator, to see what would happen if this year’s Seahawks had the 1999 version of Peyton Manning, his second year in the league, instead the 2013 version of Russell Wilson, also his second year. In these simulations, instead of the Seahawks winning by three points, the Broncos won by an average score of 24.0 to 23.1, effectively saying that Wilson is three points better than second-year Manning.
They didn’t stop there.
What if this year’s version of Peyton Manning was the QB of both teams? In this case, the Seahawks won by an average score of 27.7 to 22.4. This shows that according to the simulations, this year’s Manning is worth about three more points than this year’s Wilson.
The most talked about player aside from the quarterbacks has been Seahawks cornerback Richard Sherman. Just how valuable is the self-proclaimed best cornerback in the NFL? It turns out, he’s pretty valuable. Removing Sherman from the game in the simulations swings the average outcome to a Broncos 24-23 win, instead of the original 24-21 Seahawks win.