Spike Eskin: The Trade Value Of Turner, Hawes, Is About More Than Play Alone
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By Spike Eskin
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Spencer Hawes and Evan Turner are playing the best basketball of their NBA careers, highlighted by their performances on Friday night against the Bucks in an overtime win. Since most fans expect both players to be traded, many have suggested that Sam Hinkie deal them now, when their ‘value is highest.’
The thing to remember here, is that their value may not be at its highest, even though they’re both playing their best. Value is not a one way street.
Consider the following two scenarios:
In the first scenario, a doctor has come up with a cure for the common cold that is 100% effective. In every study possible, a teaspoon of this liquid erases all cold symptoms within one hour. Coincidentally, when the doctor finds this cure, the common cold disappears without explanation. No one is getting the cold.
In the second scenario, another doctor comes up with his cure for the common cold. This cure is only 40% effective in erasing the symptoms of the common cold within one hour. However, when this doctor develops his cure, the common cold is rampant, effecting over 80% of the population at the time in the months between October and March.
Which cold remedy is more valuable? Even though the first anecdote is more effective, it would be less valuable, because the demand would be non-existent.
This logic can be applied to any player in the NBA whose team is looking to trade him, and in this case, can be applied to both Turner and Hawes (and Young, but I’m leaving him out because he’s not playing his best ball at the time).
The issue in dealing Hawes or Turner right at this second, is that most teams may not be ready to give up on what they have, because they might not know what they have. As time goes on, sometimes will find themselves out of the playoff race, some may find themselves surprisingly close to a championship. Some may have unexpected, damaging injuries to a wing player or a big man that may make them particularly desperate to trade for either Turner or Hawes.
This doesn’t mean a trade can’t happen this week, it could, but it depends on more than just how Hawes and Turner are playing.
The other factor that has to be applied here is how important losing games is to the Sixers, and how the play of Turner and Hawes may be preventing that, compared to how the players they may trade the two for may help the team win games.
These are all factors Sam Hinkie has to manage, in addition to the possible, if unlikely scenario of keeping both players and attempting to re-sign them after the season.
Whether the Sixers get the most value for Turner and Hawes, or anyone for that matter, comes down to how Hinkie handles the situation. Until he proves otherwise, I’ll trust him with that power.