Computer Simulation Suggests Alabama Would Beat Jaguars 8.6% Of The Time
Sports Fan Insider
By Spike Eskin
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – The Jacksonville Jaguars are a bad team. Not just your average, every day, NFL bad team, but perhaps a bad team of historic proportions.
The Jaguars (0-4) are so bad that they’re 11.5 point underdogs to the (also very bad) St. Louis Rams this weekend. They’re so bad that when they play the Denver Broncos in a couple of weeks, Bovada says that the line will likely be the biggest point spread in NFL history (the 28 number has been mentioned).
As it turns out, they’re so bad, they’d lose to a college team, at least there’s a chance, according to a computer simulation.
PredictionMachine.com ran 50,000 computer simulations of the best team in college football, the Alabama Crimson Tide, vs the four worst teams in the NFL, the Buccaneers, Steelers, Giants and Jaguars.
Jacksonville won 91.4% of the simulations, by an average score of 32-13. The Giants won 95.4% of the time, the Steelers won 95.7% of the time, and the Bucs won 95.8% of the time.
“For context, the most likely straight-up victory of the NFL season thus far came in the Jacksonville @ Seattle game, where the Seahawks were 95.0% likely to win over the Jaguars,” Paul Bessire of Prediction Machine writes. “Jacksonville @ Denver will likely top that number in two weeks. So Alabama, or any college team, against even the worst NFL teams is like watching the Jaguars play the Seahawks or Broncos. There isn’t a lot to say except that you are going to start every Seahawks/Broncos player in fantasy.”
The current Jaguars are so bad, they’d actually lose to the original, expansion Jaguars, 64.6% of the time, according to the simulation.