Spike Eskin: Forget Vegas, Here Are The Real Phillies Odds
By Spike Eskin
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – I don't gamble on sports. It's not some sort of moral stance, and I don't have any problem with those who do choose to place a wager (as long as it's legal!) on a particular game. I'd say my choice to stay away from sports gambling is twofold: first, it seems like sort of a distraction. I'd have a hard time enjoying sports for what they are (fun) if I was constantly worried about losing money. Which leads to the second and primary reason, that I don't think I'd be good enough at it to make money.
In fact, the more I read about guys like Haralabos Voulgaris (look him up), the more I figure that just about every gambler doesn't know anything about gambling. Don't take this as an insult, but chances are, if you're reading this, you're not as good at gambling as you've convinced yourself you are.
Though I don't gamble, I do find the world of it fascinating, and am intrigued my point spreads and odds. So at the urging of Michael Baumann, who made me feel guilty for not being creative, I've decided to go over some of the official sportsbook odds for the Phillies, and what I think the actual odds should be.
For amusement purposes, only.
Phillies Win The World Series
Bovada: 40/1
Spike: 600,000/1
This is not happening. Not on your life. The Dom Brown experience has been a lot of fun, and has made up for a less than stellar overall baseball this year, but they're not riding Brown to some miracle championship. A team based around pitching that has too many fielders who can't catch or throw the ball, a bullpen that can't hold whatever lead they wind up having, and an offense that seems incapable of making up any deficit. No way, no how.
Cliff Lee Wins The Cy Young Award
Bovada: 10/1
Spike: 22/1
Aside from the usual 4-6 start lull that Cliff Lee has every year, and will likely have at some point this summer, I'm sure Lee will dominate. His stuff looks better than ever. I think the problem is that he'll only get 10 or 11 starts with the Rangers in August and September, and that's not nearly enough for the AL Cy Young award. Oh, the NL award? No, no way.
I kid, I kid. 10/1 seems about right.
Domonic Brown Wins The MVP
Bovada: 18/1
Spike: 18/1
The odds here seem about right, but I've got to be honest, I'm hoping it happens for very selfish reasons. Though it would be nice for Brown, and nice for the Phillies, it would also cause the end-all-be-all war between blogger "I told you so!" and radio hosts who said Brown stinks. It would be the war to end all wars. It would really clean out Twitter, and we'd get a fresh start.
We Suffocate Dom Brown With Outrageous, Obsessive Fandom And Insist On An Awkward Nickname
Bovada: N/A
Spike: 1/10
This is already happening, and once it gets going, it's unstoppable.
Have you ever seen Swingers? Remember that scene where Jon Favreau's character goes out to a bar and finally decides he's going to move on from his long-time girlfriend that he left back in New York? And he gets a phone number, and goes home and proceeds to freak her out by calling her 10 times before she even gets a chance to check the first message. She finally picks up, after he's spilled his guts on the answering machine, and tells him never to call her again?
Do you see the similarity here? If not, call Hunter Pence or Andrew Bynum, I bet they will.
Charlie Manuel Is The First MLB Manager Fired
Bovada: 10/1
Spike: 40/1
There's this awkward tension between Charlie Manuel and Ruben Amaro that has done nothing but grow more awkward as the team has played poorly. If living in Philadelphia has taught me anything, it's that the awkward tension must last long enough for us all to feel like we're watching 16 And Pregnant and someone walks into the room before we have a chance to change the channel. That is, long enough for Don Mattingly to be fired first.
Jonathan Papelbon Will Enter A Tied Game On The Road In The 8th Inning
Bovada: N/A
Spike: 6,000,000/1
Why? Because we have to save him for one of those times the Phillies are up three runs in the ninth inning. So once a month or so.
Ben Revere Will Hit A Home Run
Bovada: N/A
Spike: Even
Inside the park doesn't count? Oh, a million to one then. Easily.
Delmon Young Will Be On The Roster All Year
Bovada: N/A
Spike: 2/5
Might as well finish the job and let him torture us the entire season.
