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By Spike Eskin
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – What would the NFL Draft be without Mel Kiper’s hair and 45,000 mock drafts? Probably a lot less fun. We’d all get a lot more done over the last two weeks, but it would assuredly be less fun.
Part of the mock draft process is the subjective process in which the mock drafter tries to weigh who he thinks the drafting team should take, who the drafting team thinks they should take, and everything that happens before that pick.
Prediction Machine tried to take all of that stuff out of the process (except maybe Kiper’s hair), and produce an objective look at who every NFL team ‘should’ take in Thursday’s draft.
So, how exactly did they do this?
To come up with statistical inputs for rookies, we run a very complex set of algorithms that factor college stats, previous utilization and strength of competition, combine measurables, role and expected utilization of the player’s NFL team (in this case an average NFL team) and previous performance of similar rookies at that position in general. This allows us to predict both the player’s projected ratio stats such as yards-per-carry, percentage of tackles made while on the field and passing completion percentage, as well as his forecasted usage for the upcoming NFL season. Then we can compare all rookies based on who we think will make the biggest positive impact in his first year. It’s a system that we have applied to the previous three drafts and with great success. These projections have highlighted the likely success of Andy Dalton (#1 overall last year), A.J. Green, Von Miller, Aldon Smith, J.J. Watt, DeMarco Murray, Percy Harvin, Jerod Mayo, Louis Delmas, Sean Smith, Ryan Clady, Eric Berry, Sean Weatherspoon and even Super Bowl hero Tracy Porter, while suggesting that Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Delone Carter, Jonathan Baldwin, Glenn Dorsey, Vernon Gholston, Everette Brown and even Matt Ryan were/are overrated.
So after plugging everything into their computers, Prediction Machine’s NFL Draft expert Matt Richner and general manager Paul Bessire released all seven rounds of their “objective” mock draft.
The Eagles select offensive guard Chance Warmack out of Alabama with the fourth overall selection. OT Luke Joeckel goes first in the Prediction Machine draft, much as he’s expected to go in the actual one. The Eagles do not select a quarterback until the seventh round, when they select Arizona’s Matt Scott.
West Virginia QB Geno Smith, the first quarterback selected, doesn’t go until late in the second round to the Denver Broncos.
The entire first round of Prediction Machine’s Draft is below. For the entire draft visit Prediction Machine.
|1||1||Kansas City||Luke Joeckel||OT||Texas A&M|
|1||2||Jacksonville||Damontre Moore||DE||Texas A&M|
|1||5||Detroit||Eric Fisher||OT||Central Michigan|
|1||9||New York Jets||Jarvis Jones||RUSH||Georgia|
|1||11||San Diego||DJ Fluker||OT||Alabama|
|1||13||New York Jets||Johnthan Banks||CB||Mississippi State|
|1||14||Carolina||Tavon Austin||WR||West Virginia|
|1||15||New Orleans||Johnathan Hankins||DT||Ohio State|
|1||16||St. Louis||Phillip Thomas||S||Fresno State|
|1||19||New York Giants||Alec Ogletree||ILB||Georgia|
|1||22||St. Louis||Terrance Williams||WR||Baylor|
|1||23||Minnesota||Manti Te’o||ILB||Notre Dame|
|1||26||Green Bay||Barrett Jones||C||Alabama|
|1||28||Denver||Cornelius Carradine||DE||Florida State|
|1||29||New England||Terry Hawthorne||CB||Illinois|
|1||31||San Francisco||DJ Hayden||CB||Houston|