By Matt Cott, Matthew Schwimmer & Moe Koltun of Roto Analysis
To kick off RotoAnalysis.com’s coverage this year, we decided to give you our three biggest tips for winning your league in the 2013 fantasy baseball season. While there are a huge variety of factors that contribute to your fantasy success, we believe that following these three philosophies is a great way to start on the path to a championship.
Value Power Over Speed
When going through the leaderboards, a few things ring true for your fantasy team. The specific factor that we’re focusing on in preparation for drafts this season is just how scarce good power is. There were just nine players with over 35 homers last season despite there being an average of over 13 and a half per year in the previous decade. This trend of declining power league-wide is dangerous for fantasy owners who like to take pitchers and speed guys early.
A guy like Josh Willingham may not be a sexy name on draft day, but those players are crucial for your success in a category league. We like to avoid the Adam Dunn/Chris Davis/Pedro Alvarez types who will fill your lineup with homers but drag it down in average – that’s what makes top guys like Miggy and Braun so valuable. Cheap speed is relatively easy to come by with 23 players stealing more than 30 bags last season, and many available later in drafts than the power guys. Looking at the power replacement level at each position to figure out who to target as you draft your team could make all the difference in the standings as the season goes on.
It’s Your Team
Whether it’s your money or pride, it’s your own and not anyone else’s. Don’t blame another person for your failure. You wouldn’t give someone else all of the credit if you won. Research well and prepare for your draft, but at the end of the day the most important thing to do is to follow your gut. Go with your guys because it’s way better to lose with your guys then loose without your guys and having them all go off. There is nothing more annoying then hearing people complain about a play they made because they listened to someone else. It’s variance in sports, and at the end of the day, we’re not perfect. It’s your team, they’re your guys for better or worse
Don’t Immediately Bail On Your Sleepers
Believe in yourself. Yeah, I know that this combined with the previous title probably makes this sound like RotoAnalysis is your cheerleader. However, expert rankings have become so prevalent that there’s very little personal opinion left in the drafting process. The only real indicator of fantasy skill in the modern game is whom you grab with your sleepers.
Season-to-season you may get lucky or unlucky, but in the long run if you hit on enough guys and do the proper regression analysis you will win more leagues than you lose.
Don’t be one of those prototypical owners who drop their sleepers two weeks into the season for some savvy under-the-radar stud. My question: is all of your preseason analysis really less information than a guy hitting .433 with 12 RBIs through seven games?
C’mon man. At least try to be original.
Agree? Disagree? Questions? Tweet @RotoAnalysis and be sure to follow Moe @MoeProblems and Matt @KidCotti21. Check out their work on RotoAnalysis.com, as well as The RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast.