By Justin Drabick
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) — Low pressure continues to develop off the southeast coast and will intensify and track northeast. The lack in consistency in the guidance still continues right now. The morning forecast guidance had shifted back a bit farther west again. This would bring more moisture father west and are showing some colder air too, increasing the threat for snow. There is still some forecast guidance that keeps a farther east track, so the confidence is not as high as we would like.
Upper level temperatures still support snow from southern NJ on north and west but surface temps are marginal. With a cold dry air mass in place tonight, the onset of the precipitation tomorrow will allow the temperatures to drop as the moisture evaporates initially. This could allow the rain that develops during the morning to changeover to some wet snow. If this occurs during the day, the snow would have a tough time sticking to the roads. The best chance to see snow would be during the evening hours and if it falls heavy enough, it could stick on some roads. The higher elevations have the best chance to see some light accumulation. Any leftover showers or snow showers would end Thursday morning at the storm lifts northeast.
A winter weather advisory has been issued Wednesday through early Thursday AM for inland southern NJ up through the southern Poconos, for a couple of inches possible north & west of Phila, and lesser amounts south & east. This will depend of the track of the storm. If the track shifts farther east, the higher amounts will shift farther to the coast.
Coastal Flood Warnings and High Wind Warnings are in effect Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for the NJ and DE coast. A wind advisory has been issued for Philadelphia. and surrounding suburbs from Wednesday through early Thursday morning. The Shore will see the main impacts with wind gusts 50+ mph, 1-2″ of rain, and minor to moderate tidal flooding. The times of the high tides of concern are early afternoon on Wednesday and 2-3am Thursday morning. The earlier the wind switches offshore (northwest) the better, as the flow of wind will push the water back out to seas and end the flooding threat.