Analysis: Poll Numbers Shed Light On Sudden Campaign Focus On Pennsylvania
By Larry Kane
PHILADELPHIA (CBS) – Mitt Romney campaigned hard in Bucks County yesterday and now Bill Clinton follows up in Philadelphia and Montgomery County. So, what’s happening a day away from the election?
After being a political wallflower for months, Pennsylvania now appears to be the heart of the last-minute Romney strategy. The Romney campaign denies this, but the numbers do the talking. The polls show Obama ahead in Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa. Pennsylvania could compensate for Ohio in the Romney path to 270.
But here’s where it gets tricky: the Republicans are counting on Virginia. The race tightened there, a Romney lead of three-tenths of 1 percent. If Virginia and Ohio go to Obama, Romney would have to have Pennsylvania and a few other states.
The bottom line: there is currently an Electoral College advantage for the incumbent, but what if all these polls are wrong? Someone is going to win, but if the polls are wrong, but it’s still close, then some of the nation’s pollsters may be running for cover. The big battle, long on personal attacks, short on solutions from both sides, is running out of time.